哥本哈根峰會落幕 風雨過后未見彩虹

經(jīng)過一場通宵會議后，一位代表打起了瞌睡。

聯(lián)合國氣候峰會上周六在代表們的徹夜激辯后結束；會議最終在中國和美國斡旋下通過了一份不具法律約束力的協(xié)議，其關鍵細節(jié)模糊不清。

The United Nations summit on climate change ended Saturday with a fractious all-night debate over an agreement brokered by China and the U.S. that has no legal force, and is vague on crucial details.

由于美國、中國、歐洲以及內部尚存分歧的發(fā)展中國家陣營對如何正確應對氣候變化存在根本分歧，此次為期兩周、有將200個國家代表出席的會議幾乎以徹底失敗而收場。在會議臨近尾聲時美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬(Obama)和中國總理溫家寶牽頭匆忙進行了一番討價還價，大會終于在周六早間大會的最后時刻達成了這一非約束性協(xié)議；而它僅得到了與會代表們溫吞水般的支持，此時徹夜激烈交鋒的外交官們已是集沮喪、憤怒與疲憊于一身，而且他們當中有許多人都抱怨沒能參與最后協(xié)議的制定。

The fundamental disagreements over the appropriate response to climate change among the U.S., China, Europe and a divided group of developing nations led to a near total breakdown of talks during the two-week summit attended by representatives of nearly 200 nations. The non-binding final statement, produced in a flurry of last-minute bargaining led by U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, received a tepid endorsement Saturday morning after hours of angry exchanges among frustrated, hungry and tired diplomats, many of whom complained that the final agreement was made without their participation.

會議聲明稱各國應該致力于長期合作以應對氣候變化，然而它并未給任何國家設定任何具體減排目標。

The statement said countries would 'enhance our long-term cooperative action to combat climate change,' but it didn't obligate any country to meet a specific emission-reduction target.

這份《哥本哈根協(xié)議》(Copenhagen Accord)的確促成發(fā)達國家承諾，將為幫助發(fā)展中國家應對氣候變化、采用低碳技術提供數(shù)百億美元資金。工業(yè)化國家表示，將在未來三年中提供將近300億美元，并承諾在2020年前每年湊集近1,000億美元。

The Copenhagen Accord did produce a pledge by rich countries to send billions of dollars to the developing world to help it cope with the effects of climate change and to implement lower-carbon technologies. Industrialized countries said they would provide a pot of money 'approaching' billion over the next three years and to 'commit to a goal of mobilizing' 0 billion annually by 2020.

然而在當前全球經(jīng)濟衰退的背景下，沒有人具體說明錢從何來。一些追蹤近年來國際氣候問題對話的分析人士指出，300億美元的資金承諾基本上是照搬富裕國家此前的承諾。至于2020年前每年所需的1,000億美元資金，美方官員說這將主要來自于私人領域，尤其是通過買賣碳額度來實現(xiàn)，政府并不會為此自掏腰包。

Yet amid the global recession, no one offered details on where that money might come from. Some analysts who have followed international climate talks for years said the billion pledged appeared mainly to restate previous offers from rich countries. As for the 0 billion a year by 2020, U.S. officials said the vast majority of it would come from the private sector, in particular through the buying and selling of 'carbon credits,' and not from government coffers.

談判代表希望將這份《哥本哈根協(xié)議》以最佳面貌示人，他們說這只是第一步，明年將據(jù)此跟進推出一份更具體、更具可執(zhí)行性的國際氣候協(xié)議。然而，鑒于峰會結束時與會代表在一份更強硬的氣候協(xié)議將如何影響自己國家競爭力的問題上仍各執(zhí)一詞、分歧未減，他們說自己也不知道后續(xù)進程將怎樣展開。

Negotiators sought to put the best face possible on what they dubbed the Copenhagen Accord, calling it a first step that they hoped to follow up with a more-detailed, and more-enforceable, international climate pact sometime over the next year. But given that negotiators left Copenhagen as divided as ever over how a tougher agreement might affect each of their countries' economic competitiveness, they said they couldn't predict how the process might unfold.

哥本哈根混亂的會議進程和含糊的討論結果讓很多人質疑，在聯(lián)合國框架下到底能不能產(chǎn)生一個大幅削減溫室氣體排放的協(xié)議。聯(lián)合國框架保證所有國家都要有發(fā)言權，結果讓談判停滯不前，10多天的時間里都在爭論程序上的問題，互不信任，直到各國政府領導人在上周臨近周末時抵達，才敲定了這份兩頁半的表明決心的聲明。

Copenhagen's messy process and vague outcome led many to question whether a U.N. process will ever produce an agreement to seriously slash greenhouse-gas emissions. The process's guarantee that all nations will have a say led the talks to bog down for more than 10 days of procedural wrangling and mutual distrust before their heads of government swooped in late last week and hammered out the 2 1/2-page statement of resolve.

現(xiàn)在，聯(lián)合國氣候進程將化分為將來的一系列會議。聯(lián)合國秘書長潘基文(Ban ki-Moon)和其他很多談判代表上周六表示，他們希望在下一次聯(lián)合國年度氣候峰會（明年年底于墨西哥召開）以前敲定具體問題。

The U.N. climate process will tumble now into a series of future meetings. U.N. Secretary General Ban ki-Moon and many other negotiators said Saturday they hoped to hash out the specifics by the next big annual U.N. climate summit, scheduled for late next year in Mexico.

潘基文說，我們本應達成一項具有法律約束力的條約；這樣一種談判進程非常復雜。他提到，兩天里他只睡了兩個小時，自周五用過午餐后就沒再吃過一頓飯。

'Ideally speaking, we should have a legally binding treaty,' said Mr. Ban, noting that he had slept two hours in two days and hadn't eaten a meal since Friday lunch. 'This kind of negotiation process is very complex.'

如果在二氧化碳排放方面制定出有約束力的限制措施，鋼鐵、發(fā)電、石油和化工等許多行業(yè)將受到影響。無約束力的《哥本哈根協(xié)議》無法明確對這些行業(yè)在碳排放方面的監(jiān)管政策。如果能明確這些監(jiān)管政策，私人投資就有可能涌入各種低碳技術領域，從事能效更高的火力發(fā)電站設備、電動汽車和太陽能電池板等產(chǎn)品的開發(fā)。

For industries that would be affected by binding limits on carbon-dioxide emissions -- steelmakers, power generators, oil companies and chemical manufacturers among many -- the non-binding Copenhagen Accord failed to provide the regulatory certainty that could unleash private investment in lower-carbon technologies, from more-efficient coal-fired power-plant machinery to electric cars to solar panels.

國際商會(International Chamber of Commerce)能源與環(huán)境委員會主席科比爾(Laurent Corbier)周末發(fā)表聲明說，商界在尋求可預測性，以利于未來全球投資計劃的制定。

'Business is seeking predictability to help plan its future global investments,' Laurent Corbier, chairman of the International Chamber of Commerce's energy-and-environment commission, said in a statement over the weekend.

由于哥本哈根的聲明沒有約束力，它不需要充當未來談判的基礎。

Because the Copenhagen statement isn't binding, it needn't form the basis of any future negotiations.

周六，在《哥本哈根協(xié)議》達成后，當正式會議行將結束時，中國的一位談判代表提醒其他與會者說，這不是一份條約，不需要被簽署或同意。

'It's not a treaty,' one Chinese negotiator reminded his colleagues as the official session was winding up Saturday, following agreement on the Copenhagen Accord. 'It's not going to be signed or agreed to.'

潘基文提醒注意，協(xié)議要求各國在明年1月31日以前在附錄中自愿列入其限制排放的自愿承諾。哥本哈根會議召開前，美國、中國、歐盟和巴西等主要經(jīng)濟體已經(jīng)做出了這種自愿承諾。而在許多科學家及一些國家的政府看來，要想避免氣候變化導致的危險后果，2050年前的溫室氣體減排量必須超過這些自愿承諾的數(shù)量。

Mr. Ban noted that the pact gives countries until Jan. 31 to voluntarily list, in an annex to the accord, voluntary pledges to curb their emissions.Major economies -- including the U.S., China, the European Union and Brazil -- made such pledges in the lead-up to Copenhagen. Those pledges fall short of the severe cuts that many scientists, and some governments, have said are necessary by midcentury to avoid potentially dangerous consequences from climate change