GRE作文范文 Issue-30

"It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."

嘉文博譯Sample Essay

It is a rare situation where one is faced with a dilemma without the benefit of having at least some information about that particular state of affairs. Seldom does something pop up out of nowhere for which there is absolutely no data available. However, when a situation occurs where there is no information immediately available, hypothesizing about a theoretical explanation for that set of circumstances can certainly lay the groundwork for an understanding of what has happened.

To theorize means to form a theory about something or to speculate about a set of circumstances. Merriam Webster's dictionary defines a theory in part as "a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation; [or] an unproved assumption." People automatically make assumptions about a situation based on prior experience with a set of circumstances or a particular set of facts. It is the normal decision and thought-making process that human beings go through in trying to decipher the world around them. If an individual were not allowed to make an assumption about a situation, the individual would be lacking an essential human element in the process of interpreting that particular situation. Theorizing about a possible explanation can eliminate implausible solutions as well as generate a range of possibilities for what has occurred.

Additionally, the human ability to think in a logical manner to rationally explain an event or series of events is one important characteristic that separates us from animals. This ability stems from being not only able to remember past facts and events, but to actually apply those memories to future situations. The ability to learn from the past is a fundamental part of building knowledge, which allows us to advance as a civilization. If one accepts the idea that it is a grave mistake to hypothesize in cases where there is a lack of data, one of the most essential tools of learning would be taken away from us.

For example, consider the situation where a human skeleton is found with absolutely no clues as to what happened to this particular person. If the investigative team is not allowed to hypothesize or make an assumption about the circumstances under which the person died, they could not make a decision on how to even begin their investigation. Should they proceed with the investigation as a homicide or a death of natural causes? With no data available, the investigators must theorize as to a cause of death and thus proceed with the inquiry on that basis alone. Without a hypothesis, there is no guide or "roadmap" as to how to proceed, and the investigators work would be greatly hampered.

As another example, consider the situation faced in the beginning by scientists researching cancer. At first, scientists and doctors knew only that people were dying slowly from some cause, but the cause itself was unknown. Researchers were faced with almost no data other than the fact that people were dying. Hypothesizing about the situation led doctors to look inside the body for the cause. Further hypotheses have led to the state of cancer research today, and obviously, much work remains to be done as no cure has been found as yet. It may be likely that a cure for some types of cancer may come from pure speculation based on a theory rather than on any hard evidence or data.

It goes without saying that it is a rare situation where there is no data available to form a hypothesis on which to proceed. But even in situations where there is only a small amount of data available, a hypothesis can be an invaluable director toward the truth.

(606 words)

參考譯文

在尚未掌握數(shù)據(jù)資料的情況下就進(jìn)行理論闡述，這是一種極為嚴(yán)重的錯(cuò)誤

人們面對(duì)某一困境，但對(duì)這一事態(tài)沒(méi)能掌握最起碼的信息線索，這一情境是極為罕見(jiàn)的。某事無(wú)緣無(wú)故地冒出來(lái)且無(wú)根可尋，沒(méi)有一點(diǎn)信息線索，這種事情一般是很少存在的。但是，當(dāng)出現(xiàn)一個(gè)事態(tài)且沒(méi)有直接的信息時(shí)，為那一系列情狀假設(shè)某種理論上的解釋無(wú)疑會(huì)為我們了解所發(fā)生的事情的真相打下基礎(chǔ)。 進(jìn)行理論說(shuō)明，指的是對(duì)某事物形成一個(gè)理論或?qū)σ幌盗惺聦?shí)進(jìn)行理論判斷。Merriam Webster詞典對(duì)"理論"的定義是這樣的："為了論證或研究所做的假說(shuō);(或)尚未證實(shí)的假設(shè)。"人們自然地根據(jù)以前對(duì)一系列情況或事實(shí)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)一種情況進(jìn)行假設(shè)。人們?cè)谠噲D破解他們周圍的世界時(shí)肯定要經(jīng)過(guò)正常的判斷和思想過(guò)程。倘若我們不允許對(duì)某一事態(tài)做一假設(shè)，那么我們?cè)诮忉屇且皇聭B(tài)的過(guò)程中就會(huì)缺少最基本的人類因素。對(duì)一個(gè)可能的解釋做假設(shè)，不但可以消除不合情理的解釋，還會(huì)為所發(fā)生的事情導(dǎo)出一系列的可能性。

此外，人類用邏輯的方法進(jìn)行思考來(lái)合理地解釋一個(gè)事件或一系列事件的能力，是區(qū)分人類與動(dòng)物的重要特征。這種能力源自人類不僅能夠記憶過(guò)去的事實(shí)和事件，而且還能把那些記憶的東西應(yīng)用于未來(lái)的情況。從過(guò)去學(xué)到有用東西的能力，是構(gòu)建知識(shí)的基本因素，而構(gòu)建知識(shí)使得我們能夠作為文明人取得進(jìn)步。如果我們認(rèn)為在缺少信息資料時(shí)進(jìn)行理論假設(shè)是一個(gè)極為嚴(yán)重的錯(cuò)誤，那么我們最基本的學(xué)習(xí)方法之一就會(huì)被剝奪。

例如，設(shè)想發(fā)現(xiàn)了一具人的骨骼，但沒(méi)有任何線索表明該人發(fā)生了什么。如果調(diào)查小組不被允許假定或假設(shè)該人死時(shí)的情景，那么他們就不可能做出決定如何開(kāi)始他們的調(diào)查。他們是從兇殺還是從自然死亡著手調(diào)查呢?盡管沒(méi)有信息線索可尋，調(diào)查人員必須假設(shè)一個(gè)死因，在此基礎(chǔ)上展開(kāi)調(diào)查。如果沒(méi)有假設(shè)，那就沒(méi)有進(jìn)行調(diào)查的導(dǎo)向或"路線圖"，因而調(diào)查人員的工作也必將嚴(yán)重受阻。

再例，設(shè)想研究癌癥的科學(xué)家在最初時(shí)所面對(duì)的境況。首先，科學(xué)家和醫(yī)生僅僅知道這人正因?yàn)槟撤N原因慢慢死去，但真正原因是什么卻一無(wú)所知。研究人員除了知道那人正在死去之外幾乎沒(méi)有任何信息線索。對(duì)原因的假設(shè)使醫(yī)生檢查病人身體的內(nèi)臟以尋找原因。進(jìn)一步的假設(shè)已導(dǎo)致了今天的癌癥研究，而且顯然，因?yàn)檫€沒(méi)有找到治療的方法，所以今后還需要做很多工作。很有可能，一種治療某些癌癥的方法出自以某種理論為根據(jù)的假設(shè)，而不是出自確鑿的證據(jù)或事實(shí)。

不言自明，沒(méi)有任何信息線索可讓我們形成一個(gè)假設(shè)并由此著手工作，這種情況是很少見(jiàn)的。但是，即使在只有極少量信息線索的情況下，一個(gè)假設(shè)可能就是通往真理的寶貴向?qū)А?/p>