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Lesson 14 金融世界 第十四講 浮動(dòng)匯率與固定匯率

在這一講中我們要繼續(xù)跟您談?wù)劯?dòng)匯率和固定匯率問(wèn)題。

 
金融世界 第十四講 
浮動(dòng)匯率與固定匯率
在這一講中我們要繼續(xù)跟您談?wù)劯?dòng)匯率和固定匯率問(wèn)題。
 
在這一講中我們要繼續(xù)跟您談?wù)?floating exchange rates 浮動(dòng)匯率和 fixed exchange rates 固定匯率問(wèn)題。
 
在上一講中，我們?yōu)槟榻B了澳大利亞從一九八三年開(kāi)始實(shí)行澳元的浮動(dòng)匯率制。在此之前，澳大利亞同世界上大多數(shù)國(guó)家一樣，曾實(shí)行過(guò)各種不同的固定匯率制，包括：
 
1 Gold Standard 金本位制
2 Bretton Woods system 布雷頓森林貨幣體系
3 crawling peg system 蠕動(dòng)釘住匯率制
 
那么，實(shí)行浮動(dòng)匯率制有什么好處呢？澳洲廣播電臺(tái)金融節(jié)目主持人巴里克拉克說(shuō)：
 
One of the most important benefits of floating exchange rates is that they help to insulate the domestic economy against shocks. For example under fixed exchange rates, if an export market collapses, the adverse impact is transmitted fully to the domestic economy. It may be said that we achieve stability of the exchange rate at the cost of domestic instability. 
 
However, if a similar thing happens under floating exchange rates, the automatic depreciation of the dollar helps to offset the negative domestic effects. In other words, we get relative domestic stability at the cost of exchange rate instability. 
 
Furthermore, our domestic economic policy options are themselves significantly affected by whether exchange rates are fixed or floating.
 
巴里克拉克在談話中使用了這樣幾個(gè)詞匯：
 
1 insulate 隔絕
2 adverse impact 不利影響
3 transmit 傳導(dǎo)
4 depreciation 貶值
5 offset 抵銷，補(bǔ)償
 
下面我們分段聽(tīng)一遍巴里克拉克的這段講話及中文翻譯：（英文略）
 
浮動(dòng)匯率最大的好處是它有助于國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)免受（國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩的）打擊。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，在固定匯率制度下，如果一個(gè)出口市場(chǎng)崩潰，國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)經(jīng)受全部的打擊。這也許可以說(shuō)是以國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩為代價(jià)來(lái)?yè)Q取匯率的穩(wěn)定。
 
但是如果在浮動(dòng)匯率制下發(fā)生同樣的情況，貨幣的自動(dòng)貶值會(huì)抵銷對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的消極影響。換句話說(shuō)，我們以匯率不穩(wěn)的代價(jià)換取了國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的相對(duì)穩(wěn)定。
 
而且匯率是固定的還是浮動(dòng)的，對(duì)我們選擇國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策也有很大影響。
 
現(xiàn)在我們?cè)侔寻屠锟死说倪@段談話完整聽(tīng)一遍。（略）
 
為什么巴里克拉克說(shuō)選擇固定匯率制還是浮動(dòng)匯率制對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的選擇也有很大影響呢？美國(guó)斯坦福大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授安妮克魯格作了解釋。她在講話中使用了這樣一些詞匯匯：
 
1 monetary policy 貨幣政策
2 fiscal policy 財(cái)政政策
3 trade balance 貿(mào)易收支
4 deficit (預(yù)算)赤字
 
現(xiàn)在請(qǐng)您聽(tīng)一遍安妮克魯格教授的談話。
 
When you have a fixed exchange rate, then monetary policy does not have a great deal of influnce on domestic economic activity. Under a floating rate, a change in the interest rate has quite a powerful effect on the exchange rate and, through the trade balance, has a much bigger effect on the level of economic activity. So floating rates do make monetary policy more potent than a fixed rate system. 
 
The opposite is true for fiscal policy, because if the government decides it wants to run a bigger deficit because it thinks that would expand the economy, what will happen, of course, is that the domestic interest rate will go up, that will lead to the opposite change in the trade balance, and that will offset some of the fiscal expansion. So the relative efficacy of fiscal and monetary policy and how you need to use those tools does change depending on what system you're under.
 
下面我們分段聽(tīng)一遍安妮克魯格教授的談話和中文翻譯：（英文略）
 
安妮克魯克說(shuō)，實(shí)行固定匯率制時(shí)，貨幣政策對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)不會(huì)有很大的影響。但在浮動(dòng)匯率制下，利率的變化對(duì)匯率有著強(qiáng)有力的影響，并通過(guò)貿(mào)易收支對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的水平有還要大得多的影響。因此與固定匯率相比，浮動(dòng)匯率制使貨幣政策有更大威力。
 
對(duì)財(cái)政收支政策來(lái)說(shuō)恰好相反。如果政府決定擴(kuò)大預(yù)算赤字以擴(kuò)展經(jīng)濟(jì)，國(guó)內(nèi)的利率自然就會(huì)上升，這會(huì)導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易收支向相反方向變化，從而抵銷一部分財(cái)政的膨脹。因此財(cái)政收支政策和貨幣政策的相對(duì)效應(yīng)以及需要如何利用它們會(huì)依據(jù)實(shí)行的是哪一種匯率制度而變化。
 
現(xiàn)在我們?cè)俾?tīng)一遍美國(guó)斯坦福大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授安妮克魯格這段話的全文。（略）
 
我們今天為您介紹的是固定匯率和浮動(dòng)匯率問(wèn)題。那么到底是哪一種匯率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展更有益處呢？澳廣金融節(jié)目主持人巴里克拉克談了他的看法：
 
In general, the record of fixed exchange rate regimes, at least in this century, has not been wholly impressive. Not only did they fail to maintain exchange rate stability, but they gave speculators virtually underwritten opportunities for destabilising profit-making that simply do not exist in a floating rate system.
 
巴里克拉克說(shuō)，總的來(lái)說(shuō)，至少?gòu)亩兰o(jì)來(lái)看，固定匯率制的記錄并不很光彩。它們不僅未能保持匯率的穩(wěn)定，而且實(shí)際上為投機(jī)者提供了為牟利而破壞穩(wěn)定的潛在機(jī)會(huì)。這種機(jī)會(huì)在浮動(dòng)利率制中并不存在。
 
下面我們?cè)俾?tīng)一遍巴里克拉克的這段談話。（略）
 
在結(jié)束這一講之前，我們?cè)俾?tīng)一遍這一講中遇到的一些英文詞匯：
 
1 insulate 隔絕
2 adverse impact 不利影響
3 transmit 傳導(dǎo)
4 depreciation 貶值
5 offset 抵銷，補(bǔ)償
6 monetary policy 貨幣政策
7 fiscal policy 財(cái)政政策
8 trade balance 貿(mào)易收支
9 deficit (預(yù)算)赤字
 
這次的金融世界節(jié)目到這里就結(jié)束了，謝謝您的收聽(tīng)。