女人不恨嫁，男人要轉(zhuǎn)變！

Once upon a time women seemed more eager than men to marry. Today such generalizations no longer apply.

曾幾何時，女人似乎比男人更迫切地要走進婚姻。然而，這種一概而論的觀點在今天已不再適用。

Is it women’s preferences (the demand for husbands) or men’s preferences (the supply of husbands) that are driving the trend toward less marriage? It’s hard to tell, but some gender asymmetries are apparent. For instance, a recent poll of unmarried blacks of prime marrying age found that only 25 percent of women were seeking a long-term relationship compared with 43 percent of men.

女人的偏好決定對“丈夫”的需求，而男人的偏好決定“丈夫”的供應(yīng)，那么到底是女人的選擇還是男人的選擇在推動當(dāng)今的不婚浪潮呢?這很難說，但存在一些明顯的性別不對稱。比如，最近對適婚年齡未婚黑人進行的一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，尋求長期婚戀關(guān)系的女性只占25%，而男性卻占43%。

Some people may dislike application of concepts like supply and demand to the search for potential lifetime partners. After all, we like to think of ourselves — and our partners — as unique individuals, not as substitutes or next-best choices.

或許一些人在尋找潛在終生伴侶時不喜歡用供需這樣的概念。畢竟，我們喜歡把自己，以及我們的伴侶，當(dāng)成獨特的個體，而不是替代品或退而求其次的選擇。

But the concept of a marriage market offers some useful insights into the evolution of marriage as an institution. It also helps explain why markets don’t always generate efficient adjustments to new circumstances.

但是，婚姻市場的概念對于婚姻作為一種制度的演變提供了一些有用的洞見。它也有助于解釋，為什么市場不總能針對新的情況做出高效率的調(diào)整。

As a contractual commitment, marriage has a price. It offers both costs and benefits to potential partners. The contract involves commitments for financial support and family care on terms that can be completely egalitarian.

婚姻作為一種契約關(guān)系有自己的價格。它為未來的伴侶們既帶來成本又帶來效益。這個契約涉及經(jīng)濟支持和家庭關(guān)懷的承諾，其條款可以是完全平等的。

But the terms can also be more advantageous to men or to women. For example, Anglo-American law traditionally gave men greater rights than women in marriage, and some religious traditions today encourage wives, but not husbands, to promise obedience.

但是這些條款也可能對男方或者女方更加有利。比如，英美法律傳統(tǒng)上會在婚姻中賦予男人更多權(quán)利，同時當(dāng)今的一些宗教傳統(tǒng)還鼓勵妻子(但不是丈夫)做出順從的承諾。

Economic prospects matter: not just the relative earnings of men and women but also their relative contributions of time and energy to domestic work and family care.

經(jīng)濟預(yù)期很重要：不僅是男女之間的收入對比，還有他們在家務(wù)和照顧家人上投入的時間和精力的對比。

Women are willing to pay a higher price for marriage than men if they have few alternatives, as when their opportunities for economic independence are restricted. An increase in the supply of women who want to marry drives the price of marriage down for men.

女人如果沒有什么選擇(比如當(dāng)她們獲得經(jīng)濟獨立的機會受到限制時)，就會愿意對婚姻付出更高的價格。想要結(jié)婚的女人供應(yīng)增加，就會降低男人對婚姻付出的價格。

In these circumstances, as the economist Shoshana Grossbard puts it, husbands can pay a low “quasi-wage” for domestic services.

在這種情況下，正如經(jīng)濟學(xué)家肖莎娜·格羅斯巴爾(Shoshana Grossbard)所說，丈夫可以為家務(wù)活支付較低的“準(zhǔn)工資”。

If the supply of women who want to marry decreases, the terms of marriage move in favor of women. They are likely to receive a larger share of joint income and leisure time. Husbands become more likely to relinquish some decision-making power and do more housework and child care.

一旦想要結(jié)婚的女人數(shù)量減少，婚姻的條款就會變得對女人有利。她們有望從家庭總收入得到更大份額，并得到更多休閑時間。而丈夫?qū)⒏锌赡芙怀鲆恍Q策權(quán)，并且做更多家務(wù)和照顧孩子的事。

Marriage market dynamics mean that a bride’s bargaining power is partly determined by the number of other choices her groom has (and vice versa). The changing terms of marriage complicate the effects of women’s improved economic position. On the one hand, men should like the prospect of sharing income with a high-earning woman. On the other hand, they may find it difficult to adjust to a new social role.

婚姻市場的格局意味著，新娘的議價能力在一定程度上取決于她的新郎有多少其他選擇(反之亦然)?；橐鰲l款的不斷變化，讓女人經(jīng)濟地位改善的影響變得復(fù)雜。一方面，男人應(yīng)該喜歡與高收入的女人分享收入的前景。但從另一方面來說，他們或許會覺得難以適應(yīng)新的社會角色。

Considerable research suggests that gender roles are, in fact, pretty sticky. In a recent article, Marianne Bertrand, Jessica Pan and Emir Kamenica offer evidence that wives often try to enact traditional gender roles in an apparent effort to reassure their husbands that they are not a threat. (The New York Times took note of their findings in an article and a commentary.)

大量研究似乎顯示，性別角色實際上幾乎沒有改變。在近期的一篇文章中，瑪麗安娜·伯特蘭(Marianne Bertrand)、杰西卡·怕恩(Jessica Pan)和埃米爾·卡梅尼察(Emir Kamenica)提供證據(jù)說明，妻子往往試圖扮演傳統(tǒng)的性別角色，目的顯然是為了讓她們的丈夫放心：她們不是威脅。(《紐約時報》在一篇報道及一篇評論文章中提到了他們的研究成果。)

These economists also contend that couples in which the wife earns more than the husband are less satisfied with their marriage and are more likely to divorce. But as the sociologist Philip Cohen points out, this assertion is based on data more than 20 years old and disregards a large body of sociological research.

這些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家還提出，妻子收入高過丈夫的夫婦對婚姻的滿意度較低，更有可能離婚。但正如社會學(xué)家菲利普·科恩(Philip Cohen)所指出的，這個說法的依據(jù)是20多年前的老數(shù)據(jù)，而且忽視了大量社會學(xué)研究。

Some attitudes have recently changed in the United States. According to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, only about 28 percent of respondents this year agreed that “it was generally better for a marriage if a husband earns more than his wife,” compared with 40 percent in 1997.

在美國，近年一些態(tài)度已發(fā)生變化。根據(jù)皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)最近的一項調(diào)查，今年只有28%的受訪者同意“丈夫比妻子收入高一般對婚姻更有益”的觀點，而在1997年，持這種觀點的人占40%。

Economic factors may shape the pace of attitudinal change. In a fascinating study of nonmarriage among women college graduates in Japan, Jisoo Hwang observes that men whose mothers were employed have less traditional attitudes than other men and were also more likely to marry. She hypothesizes that the relatively recent and abrupt increase in female employment in that country made it more difficult for men there to adjust.

經(jīng)濟因素或許對態(tài)度轉(zhuǎn)變的速度產(chǎn)生了影響。哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士生黃志修(Jisoo Hwang)對日本女性大學(xué)畢業(yè)生不結(jié)婚的現(xiàn)象進行了一項有趣的研究。她發(fā)現(xiàn)，母親有工作的男性態(tài)度不如其他男性傳統(tǒng)，也更傾向于結(jié)婚。她推測，日本女性就業(yè)相對來說在近年突然增加，使日本男性更難適應(yīng)。