Regulating the data economy
The world’s most valuable resource
Vast flows of data give some firms unprecedented power. To keep them in check, antitrust rules must catch up
監(jiān)管數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)
世界上最寶貴的資源
巨大的數(shù)據(jù)流讓一些公司獲得了前所未有的權(quán)力。要約束它們,反壟斷法規(guī)需要與時(shí)俱進(jìn)
A NEW commodity spawns a lucrative, fast-growing industry, prompting antitrust regulators to step in to restrain those who control its flow. A century ago, the resource in question was oil. Now similar concerns are being raised by the giants that deal in data, the oil of the digital era. These titans—Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—look unstoppable. They are the five most valuable listed firms in the world. Their profits are surging: they collectively racked up over $25bn in net profit in the first quarter of 2017. Amazon captures half of all dollars spent online in America. Google and Facebook accounted for almost all the revenue growth in digital advertising in America last year.
一種新商品催生出一個(gè)盈利豐厚、發(fā)展迅速的行業(yè),促使反壟斷監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)介入,以約束那些掌控這種商品流轉(zhuǎn)的從業(yè)者。一百年前石油就是這樣一種資源?,F(xiàn)在,一些巨頭公司引發(fā)了類似的擔(dān)憂,它們經(jīng)營(yíng)的是數(shù)據(jù)——數(shù)字時(shí)代的石油。這些巨頭包括Alphabet(谷歌的母公司)、亞馬遜、蘋果、Facebook和微軟,看起來(lái)勢(shì)不可擋。它們是全球市值最高的五家上市公司,利潤(rùn)也在飆升:2017年第一季度它們的凈利潤(rùn)總和超過(guò)250億美元。亞馬遜占據(jù)了美國(guó)在線消費(fèi)總額的一半,谷歌和Facebook幾乎包攬了美國(guó)去年數(shù)字廣告收入的全部增長(zhǎng)。
Such dominance has prompted calls for the tech giants to be broken up, as Standard Oil was in the early 20th century. This newspaper has argued against such drastic action in the past. Size alone is not a crime. The giants’ success has benefited consumers. Few want to live without Google’s search engine, Amazon’s one-day delivery or Facebook’s newsfeed. Nor do these firms raise the alarm when standard antitrust tests are applied. Far from gouging consumers, many of their services are free (users pay, in effect, by handing over yet more data). Take account of offline rivals, and their market shares look less worrying. And the emergence of upstarts like Snapchat suggests that new entrants can still make waves.
如此的統(tǒng)治地位引發(fā)了要求拆分科技巨頭的呼聲,就像20世紀(jì)初標(biāo)準(zhǔn)石油公司(Standard Oil)面臨的境地一樣。本刊過(guò)去曾經(jīng)反對(duì)過(guò)這樣的極端舉措。規(guī)模本身并不是罪過(guò)。巨頭們的成功也讓消費(fèi)者受益。沒(méi)人想要自己的生活里沒(méi)有谷歌搜索、亞馬遜一日送達(dá)和Facebook的動(dòng)態(tài)消息流。以標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的反壟斷測(cè)試衡量,這些公司也并未觸達(dá)警戒線。它們沒(méi)有向消費(fèi)者亂開(kāi)價(jià),而是免費(fèi)提供很多服務(wù)(實(shí)際上,用戶以提交更多數(shù)據(jù)的方式來(lái)交換免費(fèi)服務(wù))??紤]到線下的對(duì)手,它們的市場(chǎng)份額看起來(lái)就沒(méi)那么令人擔(dān)憂了。而Snapchat這類新貴公司的出現(xiàn)表明新入行的公司仍能卷起風(fēng)浪。
But there is cause for concern. Internet companies’ control of data gives them enormous power. Old ways of thinking about competition, devised in the era of oil, look outdated in what has come to be called the “data economy”. A new approach is needed.
不過(guò)仍然有理由擔(dān)心?;ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)公司對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的掌控給了它們極大的權(quán)力。在所謂的“數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)”時(shí)代,有關(guān)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的舊思維已顯得不合時(shí)宜。因?yàn)槟欠N思維方式產(chǎn)生于石油時(shí)代,而現(xiàn)在需要新的思考方法。
Quantity has a quality all its own
What has changed? Smartphones and the internet have made data abundant, ubiquitous and far more valuable. Whether you are going for a run, watching TV or even just sitting in traffic, virtually every activity creates a digital trace—more raw material for the data distilleries. As devices from watches to cars connect to the internet, the volume is increasing: some estimate that a self-driving car will generate 100 gigabytes per second. Meanwhile, artificial-intelligence (AI) techniques such as machine learning extract more value from data. Algorithms can predict when a customer is ready to buy, a jet-engine needs servicing or a person is at risk of a disease. Industrial giants such as GE and Siemens now sell themselves as data firms.
數(shù)量本身也是質(zhì)量
什么發(fā)生了改變?智能手機(jī)和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)讓數(shù)據(jù)豐富充裕、無(wú)處不在、價(jià)值飆升。無(wú)論你在跑步、看電視,甚至只是在旅途中安坐,幾乎每項(xiàng)活動(dòng)都會(huì)產(chǎn)生數(shù)字痕跡,這就為數(shù)據(jù)提煉廠提供了更多的原料。隨著從手表到汽車等各種設(shè)備接入互聯(lián)網(wǎng),數(shù)據(jù)量還在持續(xù)增長(zhǎng):有估算稱一輛自動(dòng)駕駛汽車每秒會(huì)產(chǎn)生100G的數(shù)據(jù)。與此同時(shí),像機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)這樣的人工智能(AI)技術(shù)從數(shù)據(jù)中提取了更多的價(jià)值。算法能預(yù)測(cè)客戶何時(shí)下單、噴氣發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)何時(shí)需要維護(hù),或是某人何時(shí)可能罹患某種疾病。GE和西門子等工業(yè)巨頭現(xiàn)在則把自己包裝成了數(shù)據(jù)公司。
This abundance of data changes the nature of competition. Technology giants have always benefited from network effects: the more users Facebook signs up, the more attractive signing up becomes for others. With data there are extra network effects. By collecting more data, a firm has more scope to improve its products, which attracts more users, generating even more data, and so on. The more data Tesla gathers from its self-driving cars, the better it can make them at driving themselves—part of the reason the firm, which sold only 25,000 cars in the first quarter, is now worth more than GM, which sold 2.3m. Vast pools of data can thus act as protective moats.
數(shù)據(jù)之豐富改變了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的本質(zhì)??萍季揞^一向受益于網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng):Facebook的注冊(cè)用戶越多,就會(huì)吸引越多人加入。有了數(shù)據(jù)后,還會(huì)帶來(lái)更大的網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)。通過(guò)收集更多數(shù)據(jù),公司會(huì)有更大的空間來(lái)改進(jìn)產(chǎn)品,從而吸引更多用戶,產(chǎn)生更多數(shù)據(jù),如此循環(huán)。特斯拉從它的自動(dòng)駕駛汽車那里收集的數(shù)據(jù)越多,就越能改進(jìn)自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)——特斯拉第一季度只賣出了2.5萬(wàn)輛車,但目前市值比賣出230萬(wàn)輛車的通用汽車還高,這便是原因之一。因此,巨大的數(shù)據(jù)池可以充當(dāng)護(hù)城河。
Access to data also protects companies from rivals in another way. The case for being sanguine about competition in the tech industry rests on the potential for incumbents to be blindsided by a startup in a garage or an unexpected technological shift. But both are less likely in the data age. The giants’ surveillance systems span the entire economy: Google can see what people search for, Facebook what they share, Amazon what they buy. They own app stores and operating systems, and rent out computing power to startups. They have a “God’s eye view” of activities in their own markets and beyond. They can see when a new product or service gains traction, allowing them to copy it or simply buy the upstart before it becomes too great a threat. Many think Facebook’s $22bn purchase in 2014 of WhatsApp, a messaging app with fewer than 60 employees, falls into this category of “shoot-out acquisitions” that eliminate potential rivals. By providing barriers to entry and early-warning systems, data can stifle competition.
能夠獲取數(shù)據(jù)也從另一方面保護(hù)了公司免受競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的威脅。在技術(shù)行業(yè)里,對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度的理由是認(rèn)為既有公司可能會(huì)被在車庫(kù)里的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司打個(gè)措手不及,或是在意想不到的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)型中受挫。但這兩種情況在數(shù)字時(shí)代都更不太可能發(fā)生。巨頭們的監(jiān)控系統(tǒng)覆蓋了整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì):谷歌能看到人們?cè)谒阉魇裁矗現(xiàn)acebook能看到人們分享了什么,亞馬遜能看到人們購(gòu)買了什么。它們有自己的應(yīng)用商城和操作系統(tǒng),并把計(jì)算能力出租給創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。對(duì)于自己市場(chǎng)內(nèi)外發(fā)生的活動(dòng),它們都擁有“上帝視角”。當(dāng)某個(gè)新產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)越來(lái)越受歡迎時(shí),它們能夠及時(shí)模仿,或干脆在這一新貴變成更大的威脅前出手收購(gòu)。很多人認(rèn)為,2014年Facebook以220億美元收購(gòu)雇員不到60人的即時(shí)通訊應(yīng)用公司W(wǎng)hatsApp就屬于消滅潛在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的“擊斃式收購(gòu)”。通過(guò)設(shè)置準(zhǔn)入門檻和預(yù)警系統(tǒng),數(shù)據(jù)可以抑制競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
Who ya gonna call, trustbusters?
The nature of data makes the antitrust remedies of the past less useful. Breaking up a firm like Google into five Googlets would not stop network effects from reasserting themselves: in time, one of them would become dominant again. A radical rethink is required—and as the outlines of a new approach start to become apparent, two ideas stand out.
你打算盯誰(shuí),反壟斷者?
數(shù)據(jù)的特性讓過(guò)去的反壟斷措施不那么有效。把谷歌這樣的公司拆解成五個(gè)“小谷歌”并不能阻止網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)重現(xiàn):假以時(shí)日,它們當(dāng)中的某個(gè)會(huì)再度確立霸主地位。現(xiàn)在需要徹底反思。隨著新方法的輪廓逐漸清晰,兩大想法脫穎而出。
The first is that antitrust authorities need to move from the industrial era into the 21st century. When considering a merger, for example, they have traditionally used size to determine when to intervene. They now need to take into account the extent of firms’ data assets when assessing the impact of deals. The purchase price could also be a signal that an incumbent is buying a nascent threat. On these measures, Facebook’s willingness to pay so much for WhatsApp, which had no revenue to speak of, would have raised red flags.Trustbusters must also become more data-savvy in their analysis of market dynamics, for example by using simulations to hunt for algorithms colluding over prices or to determine how best to promote competition.
其一是反壟斷機(jī)構(gòu)要從工業(yè)時(shí)代步入21世紀(jì)。例如,在考慮并購(gòu)時(shí),它們以往習(xí)慣根據(jù)規(guī)模來(lái)確定何時(shí)介入。現(xiàn)在,在評(píng)估交易影響時(shí)它們需考慮公司數(shù)據(jù)資產(chǎn)的范圍。收購(gòu)價(jià)格也是個(gè)信號(hào),可能預(yù)示既有公司意在吞掉新生威脅。根據(jù)這些衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn),F(xiàn)acebook愿意出如此高價(jià)收購(gòu)并無(wú)收入可言的WhatsApp,已經(jīng)發(fā)出了危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)。反壟斷機(jī)構(gòu)在分析市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)時(shí)也必須變得更擅長(zhǎng)利用數(shù)據(jù),例如通過(guò)模擬來(lái)尋找合謀控制價(jià)格的算法,或是確定怎樣能最好地促進(jìn)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
The second principle is to loosen the grip that providers of online services have over data and give more control to those who supply them. More transparency would help: companies could be forced to reveal to consumers what information they hold and how much money they make from it. Governments could encourage the emergence of new services by opening up more of their own data vaults or managing crucial parts of the data economy as public infrastructure, as India does with its digital-identity system, Aadhaar. They could also mandate the sharing of certain kinds of data, with users’ consent—an approach Europe is taking in financial services by requiring banks to make customers’ data accessible to third parties.
第二條原則是削弱在線服務(wù)供應(yīng)商對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的掌控力,讓提供數(shù)據(jù)的一方擁有更大的控制權(quán)。更高的透明度會(huì)有幫助:可以強(qiáng)制要求公司向消費(fèi)者展示它們掌握的信息,以及從中獲利多少。政府可以開(kāi)放更多自身的數(shù)據(jù)資源庫(kù),或是將數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)鍵部分作為公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施來(lái)管理,從而鼓勵(lì)新服務(wù)的產(chǎn)生,就像印度推動(dòng)數(shù)字身份系統(tǒng)Aadhaar那樣。政府還可以規(guī)定在征得用戶同意的情況下,分享某些類型的數(shù)據(jù);歐洲正在金融服務(wù)中采用這種方法,要求銀行讓第三方能夠獲取客戶數(shù)據(jù)。
Rebooting antitrust for the information age will not be easy. It will entail new risks: more data sharing, for instance, could threaten privacy. But if governments don’t want a data economy dominated by a few giants, they will need to act soon.
在信息時(shí)代重啟反壟斷絕非易事。這會(huì)產(chǎn)生新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn):比如,信息分享增多會(huì)威脅到隱私。但如果政府不希望由幾大巨頭掌控?cái)?shù)據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì),那么它們就要盡快行動(dòng)。
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