海洋世界
海洋的深重危機
人類正在破壞海洋。技術(shù)揭示了其為禍之大,并提供了一些解決方案
The marine world
Deep trouble
Humans are wrecking the ocean. Technology shows the scale of the problem—and offers some solutions
EARTH is poorly named. The ocean covers almost three-quarters of the planet. It is divided into five basins: the Pacific, the Atlantic, the Indian, the Arctic and the Southern oceans. Were all the planet’s water placed over the United States, it would form a column of liquid 132km tall. The ocean provides 3bn people with almost a fifth of their protein (making fish a bigger source of the stuff than beef). Fishing and aquaculture assure the livelihoods of one in ten of the world’s people. Climate and weather systems depend on the temperature patterns of the ocean and its interactions with the atmosphere. If anything ought to be too big to fail, it is the ocean.
“地球”這個名字起得不好,這個星球表面四分之三都是海洋,分為五個海洋盆地:太平洋、大西洋、印度洋、北冰洋和南冰洋。如果將地球上所有的水都集中到美國國土之上,將形成一道132千米高的巨型水柱。海洋為30億人口提供了近五分之一的蛋白質(zhì),使得魚類成為比牛肉更大的蛋白質(zhì)來源。漁業(yè)和水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖是世界十分之一人口的生計所依。氣候和天氣系統(tǒng)取決于海洋的溫度模式及其與大氣的相互作用。如果說有什么事情萬般緊要,容不得一點差池,那就數(shù)海洋了。
Humans have long assumed that the ocean’s size allowed them to put anything they wanted into it and to take anything they wanted out. Changing temperatures and chemistry, overfishing and pollution have stressed its ecosystems for decades. The ocean stores more than nine-tenths of the heat trapped on Earth by greenhouse-gas emissions. Coral reefs are suffering as a result; scientists expect almost all corals to be gone by 2050.
人類長久以來都以為,既然海洋浩瀚無邊,人類可以任意傾倒廢物、予取予求。數(shù)十年來,海洋溫度和化學(xué)環(huán)境的變化,以及過度捕撈和污染都讓海洋生態(tài)系統(tǒng)不堪重荷。被溫室氣體困在地球上的熱量有九成以上都儲存在大海里,珊瑚礁因此遭殃。科學(xué)家預(yù)計,到2050年,珊瑚礁將消失殆盡。
By the middle of the century the ocean could contain more plastic than fish by weight. Ground down into tiny pieces, it is eaten by fish and then by people, with uncertain effects on human health. Appetite for fish grows nevertheless: almost 90% of stocks are fished either at or beyond their sustainable limits (see pages 22-24). The ocean nurtures humanity. Humanity treats it with contempt.
到本世紀中葉,海洋中塑料垃圾的總重量可能將超過魚類。磨成細小碎片的塑料被魚吃掉,人再吃魚,這對人體健康的影響仍未可知。然而人類對魚類的需求仍在增長:近90%的魚類的捕撈量已達到或超出可持續(xù)的限度。海洋滋養(yǎng)人類,人類卻回以傲慢不恭。
Depths plumbed
Such self-destructive behaviour demands explanation. Three reasons for it stand out. One is geography. The bulk of the ocean is beyond the horizon and below the waterline. The damage being done to its health is visible in a few liminal places—the Great Barrier Reef, say, or the oyster farms of Washington state. But for the most part, the sea is out of sight and out of mind. It is telling that there is only a single fleeting reference to the ocean in the Paris agreement on climate change.
深度探測
這種自我毀壞的行為令人困惑。有三個原因比較突出。一是地理。海洋的大部分地方都無邊無際、深不可測,而海洋健康遭受的損害只在少數(shù)幾個地方看得到,比如大堡礁或華盛頓州的牡蠣養(yǎng)殖場。但在大多數(shù)情況下,人們對海洋的問題都是眼不見心不煩?!栋屠铓夂騾f(xié)議》僅潦草地提及海洋一次,這很說明問題。
A second problem is governance. The ocean is subject to a patchwork of laws and agreements. Enforcement is hard and incentives are often misaligned. Waters outside national jurisdictions—the high seas—are a global commons. Without defined property rights or a community invested in their upkeep, the interests of individual actors in exploiting such areas win out over the collective interest in husbanding them. Fish are particularly tricky because they move. Why observe quotas if you think your neighbour can haul in catches with impunity?
第二個問題是治理。海洋保護方面的法律和協(xié)議不成體系,執(zhí)行難度大,而激勵措施又往往不一致。國家管轄范圍以外的水域(即公海)為全球共有,沒有明確的所屬權(quán),也沒有哪個團體投資來維護它們,單個國家肆意開發(fā)這些海域的利益就會凌駕于有節(jié)制地利用海洋資源的共同利益之上。魚會游來游去,因而是個特別棘手的問題。如果你覺得鄰國能大肆捕魚而無需承擔(dān)任何后果,自己為什么還要死守捕魚配額規(guī)定呢?
Third, the ocean is a victim of other, bigger processes. The emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is changing the marine environment along with the rest of the planet. The ocean has warmed by 0.7°C since the 19th century, damaging corals and encouraging organisms to migrate towards the poles in search of cooler waters. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide in the water are making it more acidic. That tends to harm creatures such as crabs and oysters, whose calcium carbonate shells suffer as marine chemistry alters.
第三個原因是,海洋本身是其他更大變化的受害者。排放到大氣層中的溫室氣體讓海洋環(huán)境與地球其他部分都在發(fā)生改變。19世紀以來,海水溫度已經(jīng)上升了0.7°C,破壞了珊瑚礁,導(dǎo)致生物朝極地更冷的水域遷徙。海水中二氧化碳的濃度越來越高,以致酸性越來越強,常會傷害諸如螃蟹和牡蠣等生物,它們由碳酸鈣構(gòu)成的外殼會因海洋化學(xué)環(huán)境的變化而受損。
Some of these problems are easier to deal with than others. “Ocean blindness” can be cured by access to information. And indeed, improvements in computing power, satellite imaging and drones are bringing the ocean into better view than ever before. Work is under way to map the sea floor in detail using sonar technology. On the surface, aquatic drones can get to remote, stormy places at a far smaller cost than manned vessels. From above, ocean-colour radiometry is improving understanding of how phytoplankton, simple organisms that support marine food chains, move and thrive. Tiny satellites, weighing 1-10kg, are enhancing scrutiny of fishing vessels.
以上這些問題中,有些解決起來會容易一些。“海洋破壞無知癥”可以通過獲得信息來治愈。事實上,計算能力、衛(wèi)星成像和無人機技術(shù)的改進正在讓人們以前所未有的程度了解海洋。聲納技術(shù)正在詳細測繪海底地貌;在海面上,水上無人機可以到達暴風(fēng)雨肆虐的遙遠海域,成本比載人船只低得多;在海面上空,海洋水色輻射測量技術(shù)正在幫助人們了解支撐起海洋食物鏈的簡單生物體浮游植物是如何移動和大量生長的;重量在1到10公斤的微型衛(wèi)星則正在加強對漁船的監(jiān)督。
Transparency can also mitigate the second difficulty, of ocean governance. More scientific data ought to improve the oversight of nascent industries. As sea-floor soundings proliferate, the supervision of deep-sea mining, which is overseen by the International Seabed Authority in areas beyond national jurisdiction, should get better. More data and analysis also make it easier to police existing agreements. Satellite monitoring can provide clues to illegal fishing activity: craft that switch off their tracking devices when they approach a marine protected area excite suspicion, for example. Such data make it easier to enforce codes like the Port State Measures Agreement, which requires foreign vessels to submit to inspections at any port of call and requires port states to share information on any suspected wrongdoing they find.
增加透明度也可以減輕海洋治理這第二個難題。不斷累積的科學(xué)數(shù)據(jù)應(yīng)該會改善對新興行業(yè)的監(jiān)督。隨著海底探測的范圍迅速擴大,國際海底管理局在各國領(lǐng)海以外海域?qū)ι詈2傻V的監(jiān)督應(yīng)該會有所改善。更多的數(shù)據(jù)和分析也讓現(xiàn)有協(xié)議的執(zhí)行情況更容易受到監(jiān)督。衛(wèi)星監(jiān)控可以提供非法捕魚活動的線索,例如,船只在接近海洋保護區(qū)時關(guān)閉船上跟蹤裝置就會引起懷疑。這樣的數(shù)據(jù)使執(zhí)行像《港口國措施協(xié)定》這類法規(guī)變得更為容易。該協(xié)定要求外國船只接受??扛鄣臋z查,并要求港口國分享所發(fā)現(xiàn)的任何可疑不法行為的信息。
Clearer information may also help align incentives and allow private capital to reward good behaviour. Insurance firms, for instance, have an incentive to ask for more data on fishing vessels; if ships switch off their tracking systems, the chances of collisions rise, and so do premiums. Greater traceability gives consumers who are concerned about fish a way to press seafood firms into behaving responsibly.
信息更加公開透明也可能有助于協(xié)調(diào)激勵措施,讓私人資本去獎勵良好行為。例如,保險公司會更有動力要求漁船提供更多數(shù)據(jù),如果船只關(guān)閉跟蹤系統(tǒng),撞船的機率就會上升,保費也會隨之上升。提高可追溯性能讓關(guān)心魚類的消費者得以對海產(chǎn)品公司施壓,讓它們行事更負責(zé)任。
Sunk costs
Thanks to technology, the ocean’s expanse and remoteness are becoming less formidable—and less of an excuse for inaction. A UN meeting on the ocean in June in New York is a sign that policymakers are paying more attention to the state of the marine realm. But superior information does not solve the fundamental problem of allocating and enforcing property rights and responsibilities for the high seas. And the effectiveness of incentives to take care of the ocean varies. Commercial pay-offs from giving fish stocks time to recover, for example, are large and well-documented; but the rewards that accrue from removing plastic from the high seas are unclear.
沉沒成本
技術(shù)的發(fā)展讓海洋不再顯得那么廣闊無垠、遙不可及,也讓人類越來越?jīng)]有不作為的借口。6月將在紐約舉行的一個聯(lián)合國海洋會議顯示,決策者正日益關(guān)注海洋狀況。但信息再發(fā)達也不能解決公海的責(zé)權(quán)分配和執(zhí)行這個根本問題。保護海洋的激勵措施效果也是參差不齊。例如,給魚群時間休養(yǎng)生息能產(chǎn)生巨大的商業(yè)回報,這一點證據(jù)充分,但是從公海清除塑料垃圾所產(chǎn)生的回報尚不明確。
Above all, better measurement of global warming’s effect on the ocean does not make a solution any easier. The Paris agreement is the single best hope for protecting the ocean and its resources. But America is not strongly committed to the deal; it may even pull out. And the limits agreed on in Paris will not prevent sea levels from rising and corals from bleaching. Indeed, unless they are drastically strengthened, both problems risk getting much worse. Mankind is increasingly able to see the damage it is doing to the ocean. Whether it can stop it is another question.
最重要的是,更準確地衡量全球變暖對海洋的影響并不會讓解決方案變得更容易?!栋屠铓夂騾f(xié)議》是保護海洋及海洋資源的最大希望,但美國對此協(xié)議意興闌珊,甚至還有可能退出。而且該協(xié)議確定的目標也無法阻止海平面繼續(xù)上升和珊瑚白化。事實上,除非大幅提高這些目標,這兩個問題都可能變得更為嚴峻。人類已能夠越來越清楚地認識到自己對海洋造成的破壞,但能否扭轉(zhuǎn)局面則是另一個問題。
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