金融世界 第二十四集

金融世界 第二十四集
這一講是我們這套二十四講系列節(jié)目的最后一講。我們要跟您繼續(xù)談?wù)劧兰o(jì)末發(fā)生在亞洲的金融危機(jī)。
亞洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)危計(jì)是從金融行業(yè)開(kāi)始的。它是如何迅速地蔓延到整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的呢?美國(guó)密執(zhí)安州立大學(xué)的克雷寧教授對(duì)此作了解釋：
In all these countries, the trouble started in the financial sector. The question is, how did it move from the financial sector to the real economy, to economic growth, to real GDP?
Well there are several channels. Number one is what we call in economics a 'negative wealth effect'. If the stockmarket declines by 40%, then people feel less wealthy; if they feel less wealthy they buy less; if they buy less, less is produced and fewer people are employed. So that's one channel.
But there were other channels through investments where the credit system was flawed; even sound companies couldn't get credit with which to produce, with which to buy material, with which to buy capital, with which to invest and to produce. So the credit system problem ... that lubricant of the economy was non-existent. So those are only some of the channels through which it moved from the financial sector to the real economy.
克雷寧教授在談話中使用了這樣一些縮略語(yǔ)或詞匯：
1 GDP (Gross Domestic Product 的縮寫(xiě))國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值
2 Negative wealth effect 財(cái)富遞減效應(yīng)
3 lubricant of the economy 經(jīng)濟(jì)的潤(rùn)滑劑
接下來(lái)我們把克雷寧教授的這段談話和中文翻譯分段聽(tīng)一遍：(英文略)
所有這些國(guó)家都是在金融行業(yè)首先出現(xiàn)麻煩。問(wèn)題是這些麻煩如何從金融部門(mén)影響到總體經(jīng)濟(jì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)以及國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值呢?
有這樣一些渠道。首先是我們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中所稱的“財(cái)富遞減效應(yīng)”。如果股票市場(chǎng)跌落百分之四十，人們會(huì)覺(jué)得自己的財(cái)富減少了。如果他們覺(jué)得自己的財(cái)富減少了，他們就會(huì)減少購(gòu)物支出。如果他們減少購(gòu)物支出，生產(chǎn)就會(huì)減少，受雇用的人數(shù)也會(huì)降低。這是一個(gè)渠道。
還有其他一些投資方面的渠道。信貸系統(tǒng)出了問(wèn)題，使甚至經(jīng)營(yíng)良好的公司也無(wú)法得到用于生產(chǎn)、用于購(gòu)買(mǎi)原料、用于購(gòu)置資產(chǎn)、用于投資和生產(chǎn)的貸款。因此信貸系統(tǒng)有了問(wèn)題，經(jīng)濟(jì)的潤(rùn)滑劑就不復(fù)存在。這只是危機(jī)從金融部門(mén)轉(zhuǎn)向總體經(jīng)濟(jì)的幾個(gè)渠道。
下面我們把克雷寧教授的這段談話連起來(lái)聽(tīng)一遍。(英文略)
接下來(lái)克雷寧教授又解釋了亞洲的金融危機(jī)會(huì)怎樣影響到其他的國(guó)家。他說(shuō)：
There is a meltdown in Russia and in Venezuela - in one day. Now what do Russia and Venezuela have in common? Nothing except that they are both big oil exporters, and since those five countries had that economic meltdown - moving into a depression in Indonesia with 20% decline in GDP to a deep recession everywhere else, 5% decline in GDP - they need less oil and they need less raw materials. So all countries that export oil and that export raw materials are going to suffer.
This is how the system spread. It spreads even through the trade channel, or through the financial channel from one country to the other - and when there is loss of confidence the spread is rather rapid.
克雷寧教授在這段談話中使用了這樣幾個(gè)詞匯：
1 meltdown 熔化，溶解，這里指經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮
2 depression 蕭條
3 recession 衰退
4 raw materials 生產(chǎn)原料
5 spread 傳播，蔓延
下面我們?cè)俜侄温?tīng)一遍克雷寧教授的這段談話和中文翻譯：(英文略)
俄羅斯和委內(nèi)瑞拉一天之內(nèi)就出現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮。俄羅斯與委內(nèi)瑞拉有什么共同之處呢?它們都是石油出口大國(guó)。亞洲五國(guó)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮，印尼的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值降低百分之二十，進(jìn)入蕭條期，其他國(guó)家的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值降低百分之五，進(jìn)入嚴(yán)重的衰退，它們需要的石油和原料就減少了。因此所有出口石油和原料的國(guó)家都會(huì)受到損害。
這就是這一機(jī)制是如何傳播的。它甚至通過(guò)貿(mào)易渠道或金融渠道從一個(gè)國(guó)家傳到另一個(gè)國(guó)家。當(dāng)人們失去信心的時(shí)候它的傳播會(huì)非常迅速。