歷年考研英語閱讀理解2002年03

[00:03.89]2002 Text3 [00:07.33]Could the bad old days of economic [00:09.54]decline be about to return? [00:11.96]Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, [00:15.39]the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, [00:20.03]up from less than $10 last December. [00:23.67]This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories [00:27.90]of the 1973 oil shock, [00:30.53]when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, [00:34.65]when they also almost tripled. [00:38.06]Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation [00:41.89]and global economic decline. [00:44.41]So where are the headlines warning of gloom [00:47.04]and doom this time? [00:49.55]The oil price was given another push up this week [00:52.78]when Iraq suspended oil exports. [00:55.60]Strengthening economic growth, [00:57.62]at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, [01:01.25]could push the price higher still in the short term. [01:05.29]Yet there are good reasons to expect [01:06.97]the economic consequences now [01:08.98]to be less severe than in the 1970s. [01:12.31]In most countries the cost of crude oil now [01:15.23]accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol [01:18.46]than it did in the 1970s. [01:21.68]In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths [01:25.08]of the retail price, [01:26.90]so even quite big changes in the price of crude [01:29.92]have a more muted effect on pump prices [01:32.64]than in the past. [01:34.96]Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, [01:39.09]and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. [01:42.82]Energy conservation, [01:44.54]a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, [01:48.56]energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. [01:53.20]Software, consultancy and mobile telephones [01:57.05]use far less oil than steel or car production. [02:01.20]For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now [02:07.05]use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. [02:11.69]The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, [02:17.12]it oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, [02:21.76]compared with $13 in 1998, [02:25.29]this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies [02:29.02]by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP. [02:34.67]That is less than one-quarter of the income loss [02:37.78]in 1974 or 1980. [02:41.30]On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies [02:44.95]--to which heavy industry has shifted [02:47.57]--have become more energy-intensive, [02:50.09]and so could be more seriously squeezed. [02:53.91]One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise [02:56.54]in oil prices is that, [02:58.46]unlike the rises in the 1970s, [03:01.09]it has not occurred against the background [03:03.22]of general commodity-price inflation [03:05.54]and global excess demand. [03:08.28]A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging [03:11.40]from economic decline. [03:13.52]The Economist's commodity price index [03:16.13]is broadly unchanging from a year ago. [03:19.56]In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, [03:24.42]and in 1979 by almost 30%.

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