國家地理:為什么病毒讓我們措手不及(5)

What's it been like to watch the coronavirus pandemic unfold nearly three decades after I wrote that a pandemic would unfold in pretty much this way? It's induced a strange vertigo, to be honest. It's also sparked an unfamiliar kind of solipsism, enough to make me wonder: If I had made the case for surveillance and preparation more forcefully back then -- that is, if I had written a better book -- would we be here now?

在我寫過一場大流行會(huì)以這種方式爆發(fā)的三十年后，親眼目睹冠狀病毒大流行的發(fā)生是什么感覺？老實(shí)說，這引起了一種奇怪的眩暈。它還引發(fā)了一種陌生的唯我主義，這足以讓我懷疑：如果我當(dāng)時(shí)能更有力地闡明監(jiān)測和準(zhǔn)備的理由--也就是說，如果我寫了一本更好的書，我們現(xiàn)在還會(huì)是這樣的處境嗎？

Still, there's something enlightening about reading the book's stories about the epidemics from the last century, when new viruses kept emerging, raging through a population, and eventually dying out. But never since the 1918-19 influenza pandemic has any been on this scale, and never with this ferocious mixture of transmissibility and lethality. We almost learned the right lessons in the 1990s, and then we ignored them; maybe this time, with prediction having become reality, the lessons will stick.

閱讀這本書中關(guān)于上世紀(jì)的流行病的故事，還是有所啟發(fā)的，當(dāng)時(shí)新的病毒不斷出現(xiàn)、在人群中肆虐，最終消聲匿跡。但自1918至1919年的流感大流行以來，從未發(fā)生如此大規(guī)模的疫情，也從未發(fā)生傳染性和致死率都這么高的疫情。在20世紀(jì)90年代我們幾乎學(xué)到教訓(xùn)，后來卻又忽略它們；或許這一次，眼看預(yù)測已經(jīng)變成現(xiàn)實(shí)，我們終于會(huì)記取教訓(xùn)。