華爾街的賺錢經(jīng) 第9期:魚和熊掌兼顧的投資智慧(1)

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All-Suitable Investment Wisdom

魚和熊掌兼顧的投資智慧

Even the experts can't agree whether rising or falling prices lie in our future.

即便是專家也對(duì)物價(jià)到底是漲還是跌的看法不一。

That leaves investors in a quandary how to construct a portfolio at a time of great uncertainty? A wrong bet could be devastating. If your portfolio is built for deflation, for example, your assets will slump if the country instead experiences a bout of inflation.

這就給投資者出了一個(gè)難題目在經(jīng)濟(jì)前景如此不明朗的情況下，該如何構(gòu)建自己的投資組合呢?下錯(cuò)了注，受到的打擊將是致命的。比如，你的組合是基于對(duì)通貨緊縮的預(yù)期，那么假使發(fā)生了通貨膨脹，你的資產(chǎn)便會(huì)大幅縮水。

The answer is to prepare for the economic scenario you think is most likely, and then build in some insurance in case you are wrong.

最佳方案就是，按你認(rèn)為最有可能出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況來進(jìn)行投資，同時(shí)采取一定的保險(xiǎn)措施，以防止出現(xiàn)失誤。

"If you want to win the war," says Rich Rosso, a financial consultant at Charles Schwab, "you have to own both sides of the fight to some degree."

嘉信理財(cái)?shù)慕鹑谧稍儙熇锲?middot;羅索說，“要想贏得戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的勝利，作戰(zhàn)雙方你都得投點(diǎn)資。”

Such an approach necessarily means some investments will suffer no matter how the economy turns.

采取這種投資方式的話，不管經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)如何，你都會(huì)有部分資產(chǎn)受損。

Here are three portfolios, each with built-in insurance. The first will do best in an inflationary period but won't be crushed if deflation instead rules the day. The second is for investors who fear deflation, but want some protection against potential inflation. And the third is aimed at investors who believe the economy will muddle through without severe inflation or deflation.

下面的三種投資組合均考慮了內(nèi)在的保險(xiǎn)要素。第一種組合在通貨膨脹時(shí)期表現(xiàn)最佳，遭遇通貨緊縮時(shí)卻也不致崩盤。第二種適于那些預(yù)期通貨緊縮，同時(shí)也希望能夠應(yīng)對(duì)通貨膨脹的投資者。第三種針對(duì)的則是那些認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展溫和，既不會(huì)有嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹也不會(huì)有嚴(yán)重通貨緊縮的投資者。

Inflation

通貨膨脹型投資

If you believe all the government spending in response to the financial crisis will ultimately beget inflation, you want a portfolio that thrives in a period of surging prices.

如果你認(rèn)為政府應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的——應(yīng)開銷最終會(huì)導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹，那么你肯定希望自己的投資組合在物價(jià)上漲時(shí)能有良好表現(xiàn)。

Commodities are the primary play, because everything from oil and corn to copper and pork bellies should gain. Plus, commodities-particularly gold-hedge against the dollar, offering a 2-for-1 benefit if a weak dollar accompanies inflation, as some expect.

商品期貨可以是投資的重頭，因?yàn)榈綍r(shí)候原油、糧食、銅、豬肉的價(jià)格都會(huì)上漲。而且，大宗商品——尤其是黃金，可對(duì)沖美元貶值。有人預(yù)計(jì)，在美元疲軟兼通脹的形勢(shì)下，投資黃金可能會(huì)帶來雙倍的收益。

Insurance Component; Long-term Treasury bonds and municipal bonds.

保險(xiǎn)元素：長(zhǎng)期國(guó)債和市政債券

Both will likely soar in value amid deflation because their long period of fixed payments would bean attractive source of income as prices for goods and services broadly fall, would like paychecks shrink. And Treasury papers, in particular, would likely become a haven for foreign investors, further pushing up their price.

這兩種債券在通貨緊縮時(shí)期價(jià)格都會(huì)攀升，因?yàn)樵谏唐泛头?wù)大幅降價(jià)、薪酬縮水的情況下，這兩種債券的長(zhǎng)期固定收益會(huì)是一筆可觀的收入。尤其是美國(guó)國(guó)債，到時(shí)會(huì)很受國(guó)外投資者的青睞，從而價(jià)格會(huì)受到進(jìn)一步地推動(dòng)。