華爾街的賺錢(qián)經(jīng) 第15期:股票價(jià)值 該用多長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的目光去看待

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The Stock Value Wasn't Decided by Economic Conditions

股票價(jià)值，該用多長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的目光去看待

The stock mark jump 6% last week on growing hopes of an imminent economic recovery. It has risen 39% from the March lows on similar hopes. Of course, it had previously fallen nearly 60% on fears of a slump.

對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇指日可待的希望日益加大，受此提振，美國(guó)股市上周漲了6%。在同樣希望的推動(dòng)下，股市較3月份的低點(diǎn)漲了39%。當(dāng)然，受經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡?lián)鷳n(yōu)的拖累，美股此前跌了近60%。

All these moves have on thing in common: Millions of investors have acted on the belief that shared values are closely related to what will happen in the economy in the next few months and years, But are they right?

股市的所有這些走勢(shì)都有一個(gè)共同點(diǎn)，那就是數(shù)百萬(wàn)投資者的行為都是基于這樣一種觀點(diǎn)：股價(jià)與未來(lái)幾個(gè)月和未來(lái)幾年的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)密切相關(guān)。但是他們的看法對(duì)嗎?

Not according to Ben inker, director of asset allocation at contrarian fund company Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. In a recent and fascinating note, Mr. Inker persuasively argues that the next moves in the economy shouldn't actually matter too much to investors at all.

反向投資基金公司 Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co.的資產(chǎn)配置主管本·印克可不這樣認(rèn)為。在最近一份頗有趣的報(bào)告中，印克很有說(shuō)服力地辯稱(chēng)道，投資者實(shí)際上不應(yīng)該過(guò)于看重近期的經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)。

Why? Two reasons.

為什么呢?有兩個(gè)原因。

First, because most of the value of shares really depends on the cash they will generate many years, even decades, ahead. The next few years are only a minuscule part of the equation. "Since stocks do not have an expiration date and dividends grow over time," Mr. Inker argues, "the duration of stocks is extremely long. If we assume that half of the return from stocks in a given year comes from the dividends and half from the growth in dividends, most of the value of stocks comes from cash flows in the distant future."

首先是因?yàn)楣善眱r(jià)值大部分取決于未來(lái)很多年甚至幾十年里股票產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金。今后的幾年只是其中很短的一段時(shí)間。印克說(shuō)，“由于股票沒(méi)有到期日，股息隨著時(shí)間的增長(zhǎng)而增長(zhǎng)，股票持續(xù)的時(shí)間非常長(zhǎng)。如果我們假定某一年里股票的一半收益來(lái)自股息，另一半來(lái)自股息的增長(zhǎng)，那么大部分股票價(jià)值都來(lái)自未來(lái)的現(xiàn)金流”。

How distant? Using Mr. Inker's hypothesis, it turns out that about 75% of the value of shares is actually based on dividends that will be paid more than eleven years from now. Half the value is based on dividends to be paid after 25 years, and a quarter on those to be paid after about 50 years.

多遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)?利用印克的假設(shè)得出，約75%的股票價(jià)值實(shí)際上取決于未來(lái)11年之后的股息收入。一半的股票價(jià)值取決于25年之后的股息，四分之一的股票價(jià)值取決于50年之后的股息收入。

In other words, when you look at the market today, three quarters of its true value is based on what companies will earn and pay out after 2020 and half is based on what they will do after 2034. So really, how much attention should you pay to next quarter's earnings?

也就是說(shuō)，當(dāng)你看今天的股市時(shí)，真正價(jià)值中的四分之三要看2020年之后公司的盈利和股息，一半的價(jià)值要取決于公司2034年之后的表現(xiàn)。因此，你該對(duì)下個(gè)季度的公司收益投入多大的關(guān)注呢?

There is a second reason for not paying too much attention to the economy's next move. No matter what happens next month or next year, sooner or later the economy will probably find its way back onto its long-term path anyway. If we now boom wildly, we'll pay for it with weaker growth down the line And if things are bad for a while, eventually they'll pick Up. That can be true even for devastating blows. GMO's calculations show that by the late 1940s, Mr. Inker writes, the U.S. economy had returned to the long-term growth paths if the Depression had never happened."

不要對(duì)短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)關(guān)注過(guò)多，這是第二個(gè)原因。無(wú)論下個(gè)月或是明年發(fā)生什么事，經(jīng)濟(jì)或許早晚都會(huì)重新回到長(zhǎng)期的發(fā)展道路上去。如果現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)瘋狂增長(zhǎng)，那么代價(jià)就是今后增幅會(huì)減小。如果一段時(shí)期形勢(shì)不好，最終總會(huì)好起來(lái)的。即使是對(duì)災(zāi)難性的打擊也是這樣。印克寫(xiě)道，據(jù) Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co.計(jì)算，到20世紀(jì)40年代末，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)回到了長(zhǎng)期的增長(zhǎng)道路上，就像大蕭條從來(lái)沒(méi)有發(fā)生過(guò)一樣。

This sort of analysis is a useful antidote to stock market moods.

這類(lèi)分析是對(duì)股市情緒的一劑有效的“解毒劑”。

Wall Street is back on its happy pills again. At some point, maybe even soon, brokers may start urging us to pay too much for stocks on the basis of this year's economic growth or next. Canny investors may respond: But what about 2034?

華爾街叉開(kāi)始吃“忘憂(yōu)藥”了。有一天，或許很快，經(jīng)紀(jì)人就可能開(kāi)始敦促我們根據(jù)今年或明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)情況花高價(jià)買(mǎi)股票了。謹(jǐn)慎的投資者可能會(huì)問(wèn)2034年的情形會(huì)怎樣呢?