英語賺錢兩不誤-道瓊斯給我們的信號(英文 翻譯)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now halved from its peak. That is going some. From a high of 14,164 early in October 2007 it has taken only 503 days to fall 50 per cent, a full 320 days faster than the ludicrously overvalued Nikkei 225 took to halve after Japan’s bubble burst. To be fair, the Nikkei almost got there at twice the clip as the Dow before bouncing like a samurai’s severed head.

道瓊斯指數(shù)如今已從最高點跌落一半。這可是相當(dāng)快。從2007年10月初14164點的高位，該指數(shù)僅僅用了503天就下跌了50%，比日本泡沫破滅后，估值高得離譜的日經(jīng)225指數(shù)從最高點腰斬的時間足足快了320天。但公平地說，日經(jīng)指數(shù)飆升至頂峰的時間幾乎比道瓊斯指數(shù)快了一倍，然后才像掉落的武士人頭那樣落地反彈。

Forget the destruction of wealth and terrible repercussions for those approaching retirement. This is also a betrayal. America believes in equities, its investment philosophy summed up in best-selling books such as Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run. Warren Buffett, high priest of the “buy and hold” view, is one of America’s most trusted citizens.

且不提財富的摧毀和對即將退休人士的可怕打擊。這還是一種背叛。美國人相信股市，其投資哲學(xué)體現(xiàn)于杰里米•西格爾(Jeremy Siegel)的《股史風(fēng)云話投資》(Stocks for the Long Run)等暢銷書中。長期推崇“購買并持有”理念的沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)，在美國是最受信任的人士之一。

What if he is wrong? What if, like Japan, this is only the beginning and the Dow has another quarter-odd century left to fall, or just flatlines? After all, it never regained its 1929 peak until 1954. Normally, such agonising would be a fair indication that it is time to buy. Is it? Those investors, such as Mr Buffett, who banged the table towards the end of last year imploring punters to re-enter the market have already lost another fifth of their money.

如果他錯了呢?如果，像日本那樣，這只是痛苦的開始，道瓊斯指數(shù)還有大約四分之一個世紀(jì)將繼續(xù)下滑，或只是持平?畢竟，該指數(shù)直到1954年才重返在1929年達到的頂峰。正常情況下，這樣的苦惱將是一個不錯的指標(biāo)，說明進場的時機到了。但現(xiàn)在是進場的時候嗎?包括巴菲特在內(nèi)，那些在去年末大聲呼吁股民重新進場的投資者，已經(jīng)又虧損了五分之一的資金。

Sure, US equities now look cheap – the forward price/earnings ratio of the S&P500 is just 12 times compared with an average of 17 since 1923. But they also looked tempting on 15 times four months ago. Stocks can overshoot on the downside. Still, in the past 14 recessions, the average trough valuation has been 11 times, according to Capital Economics. But just as the “p” sometimes falls too far, the “e” can also plummet. That is the worry now: corporate profits are collapsing and investors are losing hope that there is anything the government, the Fed or anybody else can do about it.

沒錯，美國股票現(xiàn)在看上去相當(dāng)便宜。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的預(yù)期市盈率只有12倍，遠低于1923年以來17倍的平均數(shù)。但在4個月前預(yù)期市盈率為15倍的時候，股市看上去也是有吸引力的。股價下跌有可能超出合理范圍。不過，根據(jù)英國經(jīng)濟研究機構(gòu)Capital Economics的研究，在過去的14次衰退中，股市的最低市盈率平均為11倍。但是，正如市盈率中的“價格”有時可能跌得過深，“盈利”也有可能滑坡。這正是如今人們所擔(dān)心的：企業(yè)盈利正在崩潰，而投資者正失去希望，認為政府、美聯(lián)儲(Fed)或其它任何方面對此都無能為力。