研究：中國減排取得明顯進展

China is on track to meet ambitious targets for moderating greenhouse gas emissions, according to an independent report.

一份獨立報告指出，中國在減緩溫室氣體排放方面正逐漸實現(xiàn)各項雄心勃勃的目標。

E3G, the climate change think-tank that published the report, said reforestation, low-carbon transport, improvements in energy efficiency and investments in renewable power had put the country on a considerably lower trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions than would be expected under “business as usual”.

發(fā)表這份報告的氣候變化智庫E3G表示，造林、低碳交通、改進能效以及對可再生能源的投資，使中國溫室氣體排放量要比在“一切照舊”情況的預期排放量低得多。

“China has made significant headway,” said Matthew Findlay, the programme leader at E3G. “But it must meet the targets in its five-year plan and toughen those policies in future plans.”

“中國已經(jīng)取得重大進步，”E3G的項目主管馬修•芬德雷(Matthew Findlay)表示。“但還必須實現(xiàn)其五年計劃中的目標，并在今后的計劃中收緊這些政策。”

E3G measured national wealth per unit of carbon emissions to find out which countries would be most competitive under carbon limits. Its finding suggests that if China continued at this pace of improvement it would be able to meet the demands of developed nations at the Copenhagen talks in December, which are intended to forge a new international agreement on climate change.

E3G通過衡量平均到每單位碳排放的國家財富，來確定哪些國家在碳排放限制下更具競爭力。該組織的發(fā)現(xiàn)表明，如果中國繼續(xù)這種改善速度，就能在12月哥本哈根談判中滿足發(fā)達國家的要求。哥本哈根會議旨在就氣候變化締結一個新的國際協(xié)議。

Rich countries want emerging economies including China and India to take measures such as improving the efficiency of power generation and encouraging development of renewables. Only if such measures are agreed will rich countries provide funds to help poorer nations to cut emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change.

富裕國家希望中國、印度等發(fā)展中國家采取提高發(fā)電效率和鼓勵發(fā)展可再生能源等措施。只有發(fā)展中國家同意采取這種措施，富國才會提供資金，以幫助較貧窮的國家減排并適應氣候變化的影響。

Beijing is already taking such measures under its five-year economic plan.

中國政府已經(jīng)在其經(jīng)濟發(fā)展五年計劃采取了此類措施。

China's carbon dioxide output is likely to be 40 per cent higher in 2020 than today because of its expected economic growth. But emissions would rise twice as fast if China pursued the high-carbon economic growth of the past.

到2020年，由于預期的經(jīng)濟增長，中國的二氧化碳排放量可能會增加40%。但如果中國繼續(xù)過去那種高碳經(jīng)濟增長模式，排放量增長速度就可能會增加一倍。

The “carbon dioxide intensity of gross domestic product” in China will halve in the next decade, the report says. This means China will be able to curb the growth of its emissions between now and 2020 to the extent necessary to hold global temperatures to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Such a temperature rise is seen as the limit of safety, beyond which the effects of climate change become irreversible.

報告稱，中國“國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的二氧化碳密度”將在未來十年中減半。這意味著從現(xiàn)在到2020年，中國有能力減緩碳排放量的增加，使全球氣溫高出工業(yè)化前水平不超過2攝氏度。氣溫的這種升幅被視為安全極限，一旦逾越，氣候變化的效應便不可逆轉(zhuǎn)。

But the analysis also pointed to a possible problem in that China's rate of emissions reduction slowed from 2000 to 2005 before recovering from 2005 on, owing to improvements in energy efficiency.

但分析也指出了一個可能存在的問題，即中國的減排速度在2000年至2005年間有所放緩，直到2005年之后才在能效改善的作用下有所恢復。

譯者/管婧