研究：中國(guó)減排取得明顯進(jìn)展

China is on track to meet ambitious targets for moderating greenhouse gas emissions, according to an independent report.

一份獨(dú)立報(bào)告指出，中國(guó)在減緩溫室氣體排放方面正逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)各項(xiàng)雄心勃勃的目標(biāo)。

E3G, the climate change think-tank that published the report, said reforestation, low-carbon transport, improvements in energy efficiency and investments in renewable power had put the country on a considerably lower trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions than would be expected under “business as usual”.

發(fā)表這份報(bào)告的氣候變化智庫(kù)E3G表示，造林、低碳交通、改進(jìn)能效以及對(duì)可再生能源的投資，使中國(guó)溫室氣體排放量要比在“一切照舊”情況的預(yù)期排放量低得多。

“China has made significant headway,” said Matthew Findlay, the programme leader at E3G. “But it must meet the targets in its five-year plan and toughen those policies in future plans.”

“中國(guó)已經(jīng)取得重大進(jìn)步，”E3G的項(xiàng)目主管馬修•芬德雷(Matthew Findlay)表示。“但還必須實(shí)現(xiàn)其五年計(jì)劃中的目標(biāo)，并在今后的計(jì)劃中收緊這些政策。”

E3G measured national wealth per unit of carbon emissions to find out which countries would be most competitive under carbon limits. Its finding suggests that if China continued at this pace of improvement it would be able to meet the demands of developed nations at the Copenhagen talks in December, which are intended to forge a new international agreement on climate change.

E3G通過(guò)衡量平均到每單位碳排放的國(guó)家財(cái)富，來(lái)確定哪些國(guó)家在碳排放限制下更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。該組織的發(fā)現(xiàn)表明，如果中國(guó)繼續(xù)這種改善速度，就能在12月哥本哈根談判中滿足發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的要求。哥本哈根會(huì)議旨在就氣候變化締結(jié)一個(gè)新的國(guó)際協(xié)議。

Rich countries want emerging economies including China and India to take measures such as improving the efficiency of power generation and encouraging development of renewables. Only if such measures are agreed will rich countries provide funds to help poorer nations to cut emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change.

富裕國(guó)家希望中國(guó)、印度等發(fā)展中國(guó)家采取提高發(fā)電效率和鼓勵(lì)發(fā)展可再生能源等措施。只有發(fā)展中國(guó)家同意采取這種措施，富國(guó)才會(huì)提供資金，以幫助較貧窮的國(guó)家減排并適應(yīng)氣候變化的影響。

Beijing is already taking such measures under its five-year economic plan.

中國(guó)政府已經(jīng)在其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展五年計(jì)劃采取了此類措施。

China's carbon dioxide output is likely to be 40 per cent higher in 2020 than today because of its expected economic growth. But emissions would rise twice as fast if China pursued the high-carbon economic growth of the past.

到2020年，由于預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，中國(guó)的二氧化碳排放量可能會(huì)增加40%。但如果中國(guó)繼續(xù)過(guò)去那種高碳經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式，排放量增長(zhǎng)速度就可能會(huì)增加一倍。

The “carbon dioxide intensity of gross domestic product” in China will halve in the next decade, the report says. This means China will be able to curb the growth of its emissions between now and 2020 to the extent necessary to hold global temperatures to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Such a temperature rise is seen as the limit of safety, beyond which the effects of climate change become irreversible.

報(bào)告稱，中國(guó)“國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的二氧化碳密度”將在未來(lái)十年中減半。這意味著從現(xiàn)在到2020年，中國(guó)有能力減緩碳排放量的增加，使全球氣溫高出工業(yè)化前水平不超過(guò)2攝氏度。氣溫的這種升幅被視為安全極限，一旦逾越，氣候變化的效應(yīng)便不可逆轉(zhuǎn)。

But the analysis also pointed to a possible problem in that China's rate of emissions reduction slowed from 2000 to 2005 before recovering from 2005 on, owing to improvements in energy efficiency.

但分析也指出了一個(gè)可能存在的問(wèn)題，即中國(guó)的減排速度在2000年至2005年間有所放緩，直到2005年之后才在能效改善的作用下有所恢復(fù)。

譯者/管婧