預(yù)計(jì)今年的冬天將基本是溫和的，但溫和并不意味著沒有驚喜

美國國家海洋和大氣管理局表示，預(yù)計(jì)今年的冬天將基本是溫和的，但溫和并不意味著沒有驚喜

Most regions of the United States can expect a warmer-than-average winter this year, but don't get complacent just because you see the word "mild," says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

美國國家海洋和大氣管理局(NOAA)表示，美國大部分地區(qū)今年的冬季氣溫都將高于平均水平，但不要因?yàn)榭吹?ldquo;溫和”這個(gè)詞就沾沾自喜。

That means there's plenty we don't know at this point on the calendar, so we'll be keeping an eye out for the next NOAA update, which is expected on Nov. 21.

這意味著在這個(gè)節(jié)目單上還有很多我們不知道的，所以我們將密切關(guān)注下一個(gè)NOAA更新，預(yù)計(jì)在11月21日。

And as we typically do, we also checked out the forecasts provided by the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac, and there appears to be strong disagreement on how many layers of socks you'll need.

和我們通常做的一樣，我們也檢查了農(nóng)民年鑒和老農(nóng)民年鑒提供的預(yù)測，似乎在你需要多少層襪子的問題上存在嚴(yán)重分歧。

What the Farmer's Almanac says

《農(nóng)民年鑒》是怎么說的

The almanacs agree on one thing: This winter could be a big uh-oh. (Photo: Phil McDonald/Shutterstock)

The staff of the Farmers' Almanac predict this winter will be so full of ups and downs that they're labeling it a "polar coaster."

《農(nóng)民年鑒》的工作人員預(yù)測，今年冬天將會是大起大落，他們將其稱為“極地過山車”。

The Farmers' Almanac famously predicts seasonal weather based on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and other "top secret mathematical and astronomical formulas."

著名的《農(nóng)民年鑒》根據(jù)太陽黑子活動、潮汐運(yùn)動、行星位置和其他“絕密的數(shù)學(xué)和天文學(xué)公式”來預(yù)測季節(jié)天氣。

The Farmers' Almanac says it will be a rough winter for almost every area of the country. (Photo: Farmers' Almanac)

The coldest weather is predicted in areas east of the Rockies all the way to the Appalachians. Almanac experts predict the coldest temperatures should arrive during the final week of January and last through early February. And winter will stick around for a while. The Farmers' Almanac predicts wet snow and unseasonable chilly weather will linger across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast and New England possibly until April.

據(jù)預(yù)測，落基山脈以東一直到阿巴拉契亞山脈的地區(qū)將迎來最冷的天氣。歷書專家預(yù)測，最冷的溫度應(yīng)該在1月的最后一周，一直持續(xù)到2月初。冬天還會持續(xù)一段時(shí)間。農(nóng)民年鑒預(yù)測，潮濕的雪和不合時(shí)宜的寒冷天氣將在中西部、五大湖區(qū)、東北部和新英格蘭持續(xù)到四月。

What the Old Farmer's Almanac says

《老農(nóng)年鑒》是怎么說的

Meanwhile, the Old Farmer's Almanac, which since 1792 has made advanced forecasts for the seasons, tells people to get ready for "shivers, snowflakes and slush" this season.

與此同時(shí)，《老農(nóng)年鑒》自1792年以來就對季節(jié)進(jìn)行了提前預(yù)報(bào)，它告訴人們要為這個(gè)季節(jié)的“寒顫、雪花和雪泥”做好準(zhǔn)備。

Those in Texas, Hawaii and Florida should have it easy. (Photo: Old Farmer's Almanac)

Like the Farmers' Almanac, they also predict that cold conditions will linger well into March, particularly in the Midwest and Appalachians.

和農(nóng)民年鑒一樣，他們也預(yù)測寒冷的天氣將持續(xù)到三月，特別是在中西部和阿巴拉契亞山脈。

Meanwhile in Canada, temperatures are predicted to be above normal everywhere except southern British Columbia. But the entire country should expect lots of snow.

與此同時(shí)，在加拿大，除了不列顛哥倫比亞省南部，其他地區(qū)的氣溫都將高于正常水平。但整個(gè)國家都將迎來大雪。

About those predictions

關(guān)于這些預(yù)測

Take these predictions with a grain of salt — but always be prepared. (Photo: MarkoBerkes/Shutterstock)

The Old Farmer's Almanac leans more on the side of science for its forecasts. While the exact formula is still secret, much of it is based on solar activity, prevailing weather patterns and meteorology.

《老農(nóng)年鑒》在預(yù)測方面更傾向于科學(xué)。雖然準(zhǔn)確的公式仍然是秘密，它是基于太陽活動，流行的天氣模式和氣象。

Despite a claimed accuracy percentage of around 80.5% on Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts, meteorologists and science journalists are quick to encourage people to take these long-range predictions with a huge grain of salt.

盡管《老農(nóng)年鑒》預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確率高達(dá)80.5%，氣象學(xué)家和科學(xué)記者們還是很快地鼓勵(lì)人們對這些長期預(yù)測持保留態(tài)度。

The takeaway from all of this? Whether warm and wet or cold and snowy, the temperamental months of winter will be upon us soon enough.

這一切的意義何在?無論溫暖潮濕還是寒冷多雪，我們很快就會迎來充滿喜怒無常的冬季。