中國(guó)的“茶壺”煉油廠謀求抱團(tuán)求生

Plans by China’s independent oil refiners to merge are the latest indication of the pressures wrought by the country’s growing refining overcapacity, which has triggered a battle for market share and thrown into question a long-awaited liberalisation of the country’s oil sector.

中國(guó)獨(dú)立煉油廠的合并計(jì)劃，是中國(guó)日益加劇的煉油產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩帶來(lái)的壓力的最新表現(xiàn)。產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩引發(fā)市場(chǎng)份額爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)，也讓人們等待已久的石油行業(yè)開(kāi)放陷入不確定。

China’s annual refining capacity is set to reach 808m tonnes by the end of 2017, about 16 per cent of the world’s capacity and just behind the US’s more than 900m. Within the next three to five years, industry experts expect China to overtake the US as the world’s largest oil refining nation.

到2017年底，中國(guó)的年煉油產(chǎn)能將達(dá)到8.08億噸，約占世界產(chǎn)能的16%，僅次于美國(guó)的逾9億噸。在接下來(lái)3到5年，行業(yè)專家預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)將取代美國(guó)成為世界最大煉油國(guó)。

Refining capacity in China has increased 44 per cent from 2011, even as economic growth began showing signs of slowing. That has led to a widening discrepancy between China’s ability to produce refined oil and its demand for refined products.

自2011年以來(lái)，雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)放緩跡象，中國(guó)的煉油產(chǎn)能卻增長(zhǎng)了44%。這導(dǎo)致中國(guó)精煉油產(chǎn)能與成品油需求之間的差距日益擴(kuò)大。

Part of the rapid growth is due to smaller independent refineries, known as “teapots”, many of which operate large and complex plants. Some of the major teapots are now merging into one conglomerate, the Shandong Refining Energy Group — a plan approved last week by the Shandong government.

中國(guó)煉油產(chǎn)能的快速增長(zhǎng)，部分歸功于規(guī)模較小、被稱為“茶壺”的獨(dú)立煉油廠。許多“茶壺”煉油廠運(yùn)營(yíng)著大型綜合工廠。一些主要的“茶壺”煉油廠現(xiàn)在將合并為一家企業(yè)集團(tuán)——山東煉化能源集團(tuán)(Shandong Refining Energy Group)。上周，該計(jì)劃已獲山東政府部門(mén)批準(zhǔn)。

The teapots are clustered in the province of Shandong, known for its tolerance of private enterprise. Hopes that they would be allowed to freely compete in a national oil market dominated by state-owned refiners such as PetroChina and Sinopec rose when they were formally allowed to import crude oil two years ago.

“茶壺”煉油廠集中分布在以對(duì)民營(yíng)企業(yè)寬容而著稱的山東省。兩年前，這些煉油廠被正式批準(zhǔn)進(jìn)口原油的時(shí)候，人們?nèi)计鹆诉@樣的希望：這些煉油廠未來(lái)會(huì)獲準(zhǔn)在中國(guó)石油市場(chǎng)上，與主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)的中石油(PetroChina)和中石化(SinoPec)等國(guó)有煉油企業(yè)自由競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

Access to imported crude oil helped compensate for the effects of the anti-corruption purge that has swept the country’s oil industry over the past four years. Previously, crude from state-operated oilfields often “leaked” to the teapots; the purge cut off some of that illicit supply while a prolonged drop in global oil prices has shuttered some high-cost domestic fields.

獲準(zhǔn)進(jìn)口原油有助于抵消過(guò)去4年席卷中國(guó)石油行業(yè)的反腐整肅行動(dòng)帶來(lái)的影響。此前，國(guó)營(yíng)油田的原油經(jīng)常“滲漏”到“茶壺”煉油廠那里;整肅行動(dòng)切斷了一些不正當(dāng)渠道的供應(yīng)，而全球油價(jià)的長(zhǎng)期下滑也使一些高成本的國(guó)內(nèi)油田關(guān)閉。

Once they could import, the teapots’ production increased, allowing them to double their Chinese market share to 30 per cent over the past two years. Their improved performance has come at the expense of the state-owned oil groups, which have spent billions in recent years upgrading and expanding their refineries. It has also left the teapots burdened with heavy debt.

獲準(zhǔn)進(jìn)口后，“茶壺”煉油廠的產(chǎn)量隨之增加，使它們得以在過(guò)去兩年實(shí)現(xiàn)在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上所占份額翻番、達(dá)到30%。這些煉油廠的市場(chǎng)份額增加，意味著國(guó)有石油集團(tuán)的市場(chǎng)份額減少，后者近年來(lái)已花費(fèi)數(shù)十億升級(jí)和擴(kuò)建自己的煉油廠。為實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)量增加，“茶壺”煉油廠也背上了沉重的債務(wù)。

But this year there has been an apparent policy reversal, calling into question Beijing’s commitment to liberalising the oil sector amid a broader ideological swing in favour of state-owned companies. The teapots’ export quotas were cut off, trapping their output in China. Their crude import quotas also have been issued less consistently than last year.

但今年出現(xiàn)了明顯的政策逆轉(zhuǎn)，在意識(shí)形態(tài)朝著有利于國(guó)企的方向傾斜的整體形勢(shì)下，政策的逆轉(zhuǎn)令北京方面開(kāi)放石油行業(yè)的承諾遭到質(zhì)疑。“茶壺”煉油廠的出口配額被砍掉，它們的產(chǎn)出只能困在國(guó)內(nèi)。對(duì)這些煉油廠的進(jìn)口配額發(fā)放也不如去年那么穩(wěn)定。

“It’s a bit confusing what China wants to do because on the one hand it is very keen to reduce excess capacity,” said Mriganka Jaipuriyar, of S&P Global Platts, an energy data provider. The government is still offering independent refiners crude import quotas, while cutting off their access to export markets, she said.

“中國(guó)的意圖讓人有點(diǎn)看不明白，因?yàn)橐环矫鎭?lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)非常希望減少過(guò)剩的產(chǎn)能。”能源數(shù)據(jù)提供商標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球普氏(S&P Global Platts)的姆里岡卡•賈伊普里亞爾(Mriganka Jaipuriyar)說(shuō)。她說(shuō)，中國(guó)政府依然給獨(dú)立煉油廠發(fā)放進(jìn)口配額，但又同時(shí)切斷了它們進(jìn)入出口市場(chǎng)的渠道。

The result is rising stocks of refined fuel trapped in the country, triggering a rare retail price battle led by China’s two big state-owned oil enterprises, Sinopec and PetroChina. The pair are seeking higher export quotas for the fourth quarter, with fuel exports up 9 per cent so far this year.

結(jié)果是困在國(guó)內(nèi)的成品油庫(kù)存上升，導(dǎo)致中國(guó)兩大油企——中石化和中石油帶頭發(fā)動(dòng)了一場(chǎng)罕見(jiàn)的零售價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。這兩家企業(yè)正尋求在第四季度獲得更高的出口配額，中國(guó)成品油今年迄今累計(jì)出口已增長(zhǎng)9%。

Adding to the glut is the output from large plants that produce refined fuel from coal, at cheaper cost than even the teapots can manage.

生產(chǎn)煤制油的大精煉廠的產(chǎn)出加劇了供應(yīng)過(guò)剩，這類精煉廠的成本甚至比“茶壺”煉油廠更低廉。

The pressure explains the independent refineries’ drive to consolidate, using the favoured Chinese argument that large-and-indebted ‘champions’ are preferable to competition among smaller players. The large debt of the new Shandong Refining Energy conglomerate may ironically serve as protection for the teapots, giving banks and local governments a stake in their survival.

這種壓力解釋了獨(dú)立煉油廠為什么想要整合，這其中的邏輯是在中國(guó)流行的一種說(shuō)法：比起一群規(guī)模較小的市場(chǎng)參與者相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，負(fù)債累累的大型“冠軍”企業(yè)更可取。諷刺的是，新成立的山東煉化能源集團(tuán)的大額債務(wù)可能會(huì)成為這些“茶壺”煉油廠的保護(hù)傘，因?yàn)樗鼈兊拇嫱鰧⑹玛P(guān)銀行和地方政府的利益。

“A massive shutdown of the teapots is unlikely, though some smaller ones are facing difficulties,” said Liao Na, vice-president of energy consultancy ICIS China.

“‘茶壺’煉油廠大面積倒閉不太可能發(fā)生，盡管一些較小的‘茶壺’煉油廠正面臨困境。”能源咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)安迅思(ICIS China)副總裁廖娜表示。