中印轉(zhuǎn)向電動(dòng)汽車(chē)為石油需求增長(zhǎng)畫(huà)上句號(hào)

Some of the world’s top oil forecasters are starting to map out scenarios for what is billed as one of the biggest threats to future demand: China and India eyeing a ban of petrol and diesel cars.

中國(guó)和印度醞釀淘汰汽油車(chē)和柴油車(chē)，這被稱(chēng)為未來(lái)石油需求面臨的最大威脅之一。一些世界頂尖的石油預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)已開(kāi)始設(shè)想在這種威脅之下可能出現(xiàn)的情形。

The two countries, which comprise more than a third of the world’s population, were long seen as the main drivers of growing oil consumption as more people take to the road in their fast-developing economies.

中印兩國(guó)人口加起來(lái)占到世界總?cè)丝诘娜种灰陨?，在這兩個(gè)快速發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，越來(lái)越多的人選擇開(kāi)車(chē)出行，因此兩國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)被視為是石油消費(fèi)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。

In the past month, however, Chinese officials have floated the possibility of phasing out the production and sale of fossil-fuelled vehicles, following the UK and France which have said they aim to ban diesel and petrol cars by 2040.

然而，過(guò)去一個(gè)月，中國(guó)官員提出了逐步停止生產(chǎn)和銷(xiāo)售化石燃料汽車(chē)的可能性。此前英國(guó)和法國(guó)已宣布到2040年將禁止柴油車(chē)和汽油車(chē)。

India indicated this year it wanted all cars to be powered by electricity by 2030.

印度今年也提出，希望到2030年國(guó)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)售的汽車(chē)全部為電力驅(qū)動(dòng)。

While doubts remain about the feasibility of such timelines, Pira Energy and Wood Mackenzie, the consultancies that advise some of the biggest energy companies and investors, have flagged in reports the rising risk to oil consumption.

盡管對(duì)于此類(lèi)時(shí)間表的可行性仍存在疑問(wèn)，但為一些大型能源公司和投資者提供咨詢(xún)服務(wù)的Pira Energy和Wood Mackenzie均在報(bào)告中提到了石油消費(fèi)面臨的這個(gè)不斷上升的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Pira, a unit of S&P Global, said that while they remain “sceptical” fossil fuel cars will be phased out in the timescales under discussion, they can paint a realistic path where global oil demand peaks much sooner if China and India push towards a fully electric motor car fleet.

標(biāo)普全球(S&P Global)旗下的Pira表示，雖然仍“懷疑”化石燃料汽車(chē)能否在上述時(shí)限內(nèi)逐步淘汰，但他們可以繪出一條全球石油需求更早達(dá)到峰值的現(xiàn)實(shí)路線(xiàn)——如果中國(guó)和印度朝著全面電動(dòng)化方向邁進(jìn)的話(huà)。

Mark Schwartz, head of Pira’s scenario planning group, said “in a scenario where EVs approach 40 per cent of the on-road vehicles in the world by 2040, compared to our reference case of 20 per cent, global oil demand would essentially plateau in the early 2030s”.

Pira的前景規(guī)劃小組負(fù)責(zé)人馬克•施瓦茨(Mark Schwartz)表示：“如果全球到2040年電動(dòng)車(chē)在公路交通工具中占比達(dá)到40%(我們的基準(zhǔn)假設(shè)是20%)，全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)在本世紀(jì)30年代初期將基本進(jìn)入平臺(tái)階段。”

Oil demand, Pira argues, would be 10.8m barrels a day lower by 2040, removing the equivalent of more than 10 per cent of global consumption — a move it forecasts would cut crude prices by as much as $20 a barrel.

Pira認(rèn)為，到2040年，石油日需求量將減少1080萬(wàn)桶，相當(dāng)于全球石油消費(fèi)量減少逾10%。該公司預(yù)測(cè)，這將使每桶原油價(jià)格下跌多達(dá)20美元。

Wood Mackenzie, based in Edinburgh, said recent comments by Chinese officials “reinforce the government’s ambition to promote EV growth” that already targets 20 per cent of new car sales being electric by 2025.

總部位于愛(ài)丁堡的Wood Mackenzie表示，中國(guó)官員近期的言論“突出了中國(guó)政府促進(jìn)電動(dòng)車(chē)發(fā)展的更大雄心”。中國(guó)之前已經(jīng)制定目標(biāo)，到2025年新售汽車(chē)20%為電動(dòng)車(chē)。

If this rate were raised to 50 per cent by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said, as part of a phase out of conventional engines by 2035, almost 2m barrels of Chinese fuel demand would be “at risk”.

Wood Mackenzie表示，如果這一比例到2030年提高至50%——作為到2035年逐步淘汰傳統(tǒng)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)的一部分——中國(guó)將有接近200萬(wàn)桶的燃料需求“處于危險(xiǎn)之中”。

This would require China to do much more at the policy level to support EV sales, however, as it plans to cut direct subsidies for such cars by 2020.

不過(guò)這將要求中國(guó)在政策層面上加大對(duì)電動(dòng)車(chē)銷(xiāo)售的支持，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)正計(jì)劃在2020年之前削減對(duì)電動(dòng)車(chē)的直接補(bǔ)貼。

“As government subsidies still play an important role in supporting EV sales, we believe the market response will lag five to 10 years behind any government target without further policies to fill the gap,” Wood Mackenzie analysts said.

Wood Mackenzie分析師表示：“由于政府補(bǔ)貼在支持電動(dòng)車(chē)銷(xiāo)售方面仍發(fā)揮重要作用，我們認(rèn)為，如果沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步的政策來(lái)填補(bǔ)這一空缺，市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)將滯后政府目標(biāo)5至10年時(shí)間。

“Given the lack of clarity . . . about the timeline and the definition of cars being targeted, the viability of any ban on combustion-engine cars remains to be seen.”

“考慮到時(shí)間表和被禁汽車(chē)的定義都不是很清晰，任何關(guān)于內(nèi)燃發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)汽車(chē)的禁令是否具有可行性都仍有待觀察。”