政府應(yīng)準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)自動(dòng)化帶來(lái)的普遍失業(yè)

Hundreds of millions of workers whose jobs are wiped out by automation between now and 2030 will still find gainful employment — but only if governments in the countries most affected embark on massive retraining and infrastructure spending.

從現(xiàn)在起到2030年，數(shù)以億計(jì)的工人將因自動(dòng)化失去工作崗位，他們?nèi)詫⒂袡C(jī)會(huì)找到有報(bào)酬的工作，但前提是那些受影響最大的國(guó)家的政府開始展開大規(guī)模再培訓(xùn)和基建投資。

That is according to one of the most exhaustive studies yet of the likely effects of artificial intelligence and robotics. The report, from the McKinsey Global Institute, echoes a growing view among economists that the robot future is not entirely bleak for humans, though it may take efforts on a par with the post-second world war Marshall Plan and GI Bill to adapt.

上述說(shuō)法來(lái)自對(duì)人工智能和機(jī)器人可能產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行的最詳盡研究之一。麥肯錫全球研究院(MGI)的這份報(bào)告呼應(yīng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界日益流行的一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)，即未來(lái)的機(jī)器人時(shí)代人類并非全無(wú)希望，但要適應(yīng)這個(gè)時(shí)代人類可能需要采取如二戰(zhàn)后“馬歇爾計(jì)劃”(Marshall Plan)和《退伍軍人法》(GI Bill)那樣的努力。

The research arm of McKinsey, the professional services firm, warned earlier this year that about half the tasks that workers perform could already be automated using today’s technology. Few jobs are likely to be handled entirely by machines, but that still pointed to widespread redundancy, if the remaining work is reorganised among fewer workers.

專業(yè)服務(wù)公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)旗下的這家研究機(jī)構(gòu)今年早些時(shí)候曾警告稱，工人們從事的約一半的工作已經(jīng)可以利用今天的技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)化了。可能完全交由機(jī)器處理的工作不多，但如果剩下的工作任務(wù)在更少的工人中重新分配的話，仍會(huì)產(chǎn)生普遍的失業(yè)。

But in a new study issued yesterday outlining the likely real-world impact, MGI suggested that economic growth, the staggered rate of tech adoption and new types of work could more than make up the slack.

但在昨日發(fā)布的闡述自動(dòng)化可能對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)世界造成的影響的新研究報(bào)告中，MGI指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、新技術(shù)快速投入應(yīng)用以及新型工作，有可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生更大的正面影響。

“There’s a line of thought out there that all the jobs will gone and maybe in the next two decades,” said Michael Chui, a partner at MGI. Those predictions looked too pessimistic, he added, though “the scale of the challenge is really significant”.

MGI合伙人Michael Chui稱：“有一種思路認(rèn)為，所有工作崗位都將消失，或許就在未來(lái)20年。”他表示，這些預(yù)測(cè)過(guò)于悲觀，盡管“挑戰(zhàn)的確巨大”。

The upheaval in the workforce will be comparable to the industrial revolution, when agricultural workers flooded to cities, the report predicts, though retraining hundreds of millions of workers in the middle of their careers represents an even bigger challenge. Also, countries most affected, including the US and Japan, will need to pump money into infrastructure and construction to take up the slack.

該報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，勞動(dòng)力領(lǐng)域的劇變，將堪比工業(yè)革命時(shí)期，當(dāng)時(shí)大量農(nóng)業(yè)人口涌入城市，不過(guò)，在數(shù)以億計(jì)的工人的職業(yè)生涯中期對(duì)他們進(jìn)行再培訓(xùn)將是一項(xiàng)更大的挑戰(zhàn)。此外，包括美國(guó)和日本在內(nèi)的受影響最大的國(guó)家，將需要向基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和建筑領(lǐng)域注入大量資金，以應(yīng)對(duì)沖擊。

The consultants estimate that 15 per cent of hours worked today will have been automated by 2030, wiping out 400m jobs. The pace of job-destruction could be double that if companies put artificial intelligence and robotics to use more quickly than expected, with developed countries — where workers earn the most and tech adoption is fastest — seeing a third or more of jobs going.

那些咨詢顧問(wèn)們估計(jì)，如今的15%的工作時(shí)間到2030年將實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)化，從而淘汰4億個(gè)工作崗位。如果企業(yè)應(yīng)用人工智能和機(jī)器人的速度比預(yù)期更快，工作崗位被淘汰的速度或?qū)⒎?。在工人薪酬最高、技術(shù)應(yīng)用最快的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，將有三分之一或更多的就業(yè)崗位消失。