不生孩子、不約會：中國迎來“消費降級”時代？

Chen Siqi doesn’t eat out so much anymore. Li Keli cut down on travel and takes her son to a public playground instead. Wang Jiazhi stopped dating.

陳思琦不怎么出去吃飯了。利可麗減少了旅游開支，轉(zhuǎn)而帶兒子去公共游樂場。王家志不再出去約會了。

Welcome to China’s “consumption downgrade” culture, a potentially worrisome development for Beijing and the world.

歡迎了解中國的“消費降級”文化，這一發(fā)展對北京和世界來說可能是一個令人擔(dān)憂的問題。

For years, the conversation in China was about “consumption upgrades.” As the economy took off, China’s middle class — now more than 400 million strong and still growing — decided to spend those bigger paychecks. It traded up from local brands to Nikes, from cheap phones to iPhones, from tea to $5 Starbucks lattes.

多年來，中國講的都是“消費升級”。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)起飛，中國的中產(chǎn)階級——如今超過4億人，并且仍在不斷增長——決定把自己增加的收入花出去。中產(chǎn)階級把國產(chǎn)牌子換成了耐克，便宜手機(jī)換成了iPhone，茶葉換成了5美元的星巴克拿鐵。

Today, China’s economy is slowing, and shopping has slowed with it. The stock market is slumping. China’s currency has lost some of its value. The trade war with President Trump has left many Chinese feeling pessimistic.

如今，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩，消費也隨之降溫。股市暴跌。中國的貨幣貶值。與特朗普總統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)讓許多中國人感到悲觀。

China’s consumer culture has by no means ground to a halt. But in the streets and on the Chinese internet, the talk is about cutting back in ways big and small.

中國的消費文化并沒有停止。但在街頭和中國的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上，人們談?wù)摰氖菑拇蟠笮⌒「鱾€方面減少開支。

Quit avocado. Ride bikes instead of taxis. Drink beer instead of cocktails — and make sure that beer isn’t craft. Order a medium-size milk tea instead of a large. Give up the gym, and take up dancing in public squares like a grandmother. Some people joke about eating meat instead of tofu, as American tariffs have made imported soybeans more expensive. Perhaps most worrisome for China’s leaders, many young Chinese are increasingly reluctant to have children.

不吃牛油果。騎車而不是打車。喝啤酒，不喝雞尾酒——而且還不要精釀啤酒。點中杯奶茶，不點大杯。放棄健身房，像大媽那樣去跳廣場舞。一些人開玩笑說要用吃肉替代豆腐，因為美國關(guān)稅已經(jīng)讓進(jìn)口大豆變得更加昂貴?？赡軐χ袊I(lǐng)導(dǎo)人來說最為憂心的，就是年輕中國人越來越不愿生孩子。

A post headlined “This Generation of Young Chinese, Brace for the Bitter Days Ahead,” by Ma Ning, a blogger, received more than 300,000 views on the social media platform WeChat last weekend. She advised young people to stop going to shopping malls and nightclubs.

上周末，博主麻寧一篇題為《這屆年輕人，做好過苦日子的準(zhǔn)備吧》的文章在社交媒體平臺上收到了超過30萬條評論。她建議年輕人不要再去商場和夜店了。

“The age of the consumption downgrade,” Ms. Ma wrote, “has arrived with a big crashing sound.”

麻寧寫道，“消費降級時代，也隨之轟然而來。”

Chen Siqi hears the message. A 30-year-old accountant in Beijing, she recently bought a garbage bin on Pinduoduo, a Chinese app focused on cheap, sometimes iffy goods that initially enjoyed appeal only in rural areas. She makes about $1,400 a month after taxes, but nearly half of it goes to the rent on her one-bedroom apartment.

陳思琦收到了這些信息。30歲的她在北京當(dāng)會計，最近她在拼多多上買了一個垃圾桶。拼多多是一款中國的應(yīng)用軟件，主營各種便宜的，有時候較為可疑的商品，起初僅在農(nóng)村地區(qū)受到歡迎。她的每月稅后收入約為1400美元，但其中近一半都用于繳納一居室公寓的房租。

Ms. Chen said she had reached the age when she wanted to live in her own apartment instead of sharing with others. To save money, she now cooks at home a few times a week and buys clothes mostly from cheap online vendors and the Japanese basics brand Uniqlo.

陳思琦說她已經(jīng)到了想自己住，而不是跟其他人合租的年紀(jì)。為了省錢，她現(xiàn)在每周會有幾次在家做飯，幾乎都是在從網(wǎng)上和日本基礎(chǔ)品牌優(yōu)衣庫那里買便宜衣服。

“I would like to have a nicer lifestyle but don’t know how I can afford it,” she said.

“我希望能負(fù)擔(dān)更好的生活，但沒有能力，”她說。

A Chinese consumption downgrade could be felt around the world. Chinese spenders have been a key driver of their country’s economic growth in recent years. China, in turn, has played a major role in global growth. Chinese consumers help global companies like Apple, General Motors, Volkswagen and many others. A consumption downgrade could also embolden Mr. Trump in his trade fight with China, as he gambles that Beijing can’t take much more economic damage.

世界各地都能感受到中國的消費降級。近年來，中國的消費者一直是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要動力。而中國也在全球增長中發(fā)揮重要作用。中國消費者幫助了許多跨國公司，例如蘋果(Apple)、通用汽車(General Motors)、大眾(Volkswagen)等等。消費降級還可能會讓特朗普在中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中變得更加大膽，他賭北京無法再承受更多經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。

On paper, the Chinese economy looks strong. Look closer, and the cracks begin to show. Retail sales this year have grown at their slowest pace in more than a decade. Wages in the private sector are growing at their slowest pace since the global financial crisis. The stock market has fallen by one-fifth.

表面上看，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)看起來很強(qiáng)勁。仔細(xì)看，裂縫開始顯現(xiàn)。今年的零售額增長速度為十多年來最緩慢的。私營部門的工資增長速度為自全球金融危機(jī)以來最慢。股票市場下跌了五分之一。

Last week, JD.com, a Chinese e-commerce company, reported disappointing quarterly results. JD.com’s focus is providing China’s growing middle class with quality products. Investors are watching closely to see whether the Alibaba Group, China’s biggest online retailer, will report weak results as well on Thursday.

上周，中國電子商務(wù)公司京東公布了令人失望的季度業(yè)績。京東主打為中國日益壯大的中產(chǎn)階級提供優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)品。投資者正在密切關(guān)注中國最大的在線零售商阿里巴巴集團(tuán)是否也會在周四公布疲軟的業(yè)績。

Long-term factors are driving down spending among young people in particular. The cost of education is going up. Housing in rich cities like Beijing has become unaffordable for many.

長期因素尤其正在拉低年輕人的支出。教育成本正在上漲。像北京這樣的富裕城市的住房對許多人來說已經(jīng)負(fù)擔(dān)不起了。

Housing is so expensive that Wang Jiazhi moved out of his own home. A 34-year-old semiconductor engineer in the southern city of Shenzhen, he bought a one-bedroom apartment in 2016. In addition to a mortgage of more than $700 a month, he needs to pay his relatives back for the money he borrowed for the down payment. So he rents his apartment and shares a four-bedroom apartment with nine other men. This way, Mr. Wang — who makes about $2,000 a month after taxes — saves $160 a month.

住房過于昂貴，以至于王家志搬出了自己的房子。34歲的他是深圳的一名半導(dǎo)體工程師，2016年他購買了一套一居室公寓。除了每月700多美元的房貸外，他還需要償還為了首付款向親戚借的錢。所以他出租了自己的公寓，和另外九個人合租了一套四居室公寓。這樣，每月稅后收入約2000美元的王家志每個月可以省下160美元。

Like many Chinese men, Mr. Wang believes he needs an apartment in order to find a wife. But he is under so much pressure with his mortgage and debt, and with supporting his aging parents in the countryside, that he has had to postpone his plan for marriage. His prospects weren’t good anyway: To save money, he has stopped dating.

和許多中國男性一樣，王家志認(rèn)為他需要一套公寓才能找到妻子。但是他因為抵押貸款、債務(wù)，以及要在農(nóng)村贍養(yǎng)年邁的父母而承受著巨大的壓力，他不得不推遲結(jié)婚的計劃。無論怎樣，他的前景反正也不好：為了省錢，他已經(jīng)不約會了。

“I work long hours every day,” he said. “It makes me feel occupied.”

“我每天都要工作很長時間，”他說。“這讓我覺得完全沒有空。”

So the consumption downgrade is in. Even as China’s stock market has sputtered, shares in companies that make affordable staples like erguotou, a cheap hard liquor, and pickled vegetables have bucked the trend.

所以消費降級開始了。就在中國股市動蕩之際，廉價烈酒二鍋頭和泡菜等廉價常備食品生產(chǎn)商的股票卻逆潮流而動。

“Drink erguotou with pickled vegetables,” said Ms. Na, the blogger, quoting popular Chinese internet memes. “Take a ride with Mobike,” she added, naming a bike-share company that offers two-wheeled rides for pennies.

“榨菜就著二鍋頭，”博客作者麻寧引用網(wǎng)上的流行語說。“騎上摩拜遛一遛，”她補(bǔ)充道。摩拜是一家以幾毛錢的價格提供雙輪騎行的單車共享公司。

Even the only children of middle-class families, a group that is largely financially secure, can feel anxious about their future.

即使是中產(chǎn)階級家庭的獨生子女——一個基本上有經(jīng)濟(jì)保障的群體——也會對他們的未來感到焦慮。

Wu Xiaoqiong, 28, is the only child of a civil servant and a doctor in the eastern province of Hebei. She works at a big internet company in Beijing with monthly pay of $1,500 after taxes.

28歲的吳小瓊是東部河北省的一名公務(wù)員和一名醫(yī)生的獨生女。她在北京一家大型互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司工作，稅后月薪1500美元。

When she got married last year, her parents and her husband’s parents each put in half of the down payment for a one-bedroom apartment — a typical arrangement for many Chinese middle-class families. Nearly two-thirds of the couple’s monthly income goes to the mortgage and toward the rent of a small apartment in Shanghai, where her husband works at a state-owned bank.

去年結(jié)婚時，她的父母和丈夫的父母各付一半的首付，買下了一套一居室公寓——這是許多中國中產(chǎn)階級家庭的典型安排。這對夫婦近三分之二的月收入用于房貸和上海一套小公寓的租金，她的丈夫在一家國有銀行工作。

Her consumption downgrade plan is to remain childless.

她的消費降級計劃是不生孩子。

“We have almost no savings and no retirement plans,” she said. “My parents have been supporting me financially. How can I afford a child?”

“我們幾乎沒有積蓄，沒有考慮養(yǎng)老，”她說。“我父母一直在幫我，還怎么要小孩?”

Others are saying no to bigger households — a problem for a Chinese government worried about the country’s aging population.

其他人也在拒絕生更多孩子——這對于擔(dān)心中國人口老齡化現(xiàn)象的中國政府來說，是一個問題。

When asked whether she would consider having a second child, Li Keli, an accountant at an electronics maker in the southern city of Huizhou, said, “Absolutely not.” Her factory laid off two-thirds of its workers in June when the United States-China trade war escalated. Her monthly pay of $500 was cut by 10 percent. She used to take her son, 7, to visit nearby cities on weekends. Now she takes him to the playgrounds of big residential complexes because they’re free.

當(dāng)被問及她是否會考慮生二胎時，南方城市惠州一家電子制造商的會計利可麗說，“打死我也不干。”6月，當(dāng)中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級時，她所在的工廠裁掉了三分之二的工人。她每月500美元的工資降薪10%。她過去常常在周末帶7歲的兒子去附近的城市旅游。現(xiàn)在她帶他去大型住宅小區(qū)的游樂場，因為免費。

Many high earners feel anxious as well. Chen Ying, 33, an architect in Shanghai, said her consumption downgrade plan involved not shopping in department stores.

許多高收入者也感到焦慮。33歲的陳穎是上海的一名建筑師，她說她的消費降級計劃包括不在百貨商店購物。

Ms. Chen said she did not expect her pay to rise too much. Her younger colleagues do not make as much as when she first started four years ago, and her pay now is lower than that of older colleagues with similar experience four years ago.

陳穎說，她預(yù)計自己未來不會漲多少工資。她的年輕同事掙的錢還不如她四年前剛參加工作時的多，而她現(xiàn)在的工資也低于四年前擁有相似工作資歷的年長同事。

She used to get pay raises of 15 percent to 20 percent a year — rates that weren’t uncommon at fast-growing industries in China in the past decade. Now she expects the raises to be 5 percent, if she gets them at all. She has started to think about retirement, but doesn’t know where to begin.

她過去每年加薪15%到20%，在過去10年里，這在中國快速增長的行業(yè)中并不少見。現(xiàn)在她希望加薪5%，如果她能得到加薪的話。她已經(jīng)開始考慮退休的事，但不知道從哪里開始。

“In the past we had many inflated expectations,” she said. “Now we don’t expect so much.”

“以前我們有很多膨脹的期望，”她說。“現(xiàn)在沒有那么多期望了。”