研究表明，冠狀病毒的死亡率比以前報道的要低

研究表明，冠狀病毒的死亡率比以前報道的要低

How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

有多少人在感染新型冠狀病毒后死亡?根據(jù)周一發(fā)布的一項研究，死亡人數(shù)比之前估計的要少，但仍然比死于流感的人數(shù)要多。

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

這項發(fā)表在醫(yī)學雜志《柳葉刀傳染病》上的研究估計，約0.66%的感染者將死亡。

That coronavirus death rate, which is lower than earlier estimates, takes into account potentially milder cases that often go undiagnosed -- but it's still far higher than the 0.1% of people who are killed by the flu.

冠狀病毒的死亡率比先前估計的要低，考慮到了通常未被確診的可能更輕微的病例，但仍然遠遠高于0.1%的流感死亡人數(shù)。

When undetected infections aren't taken into account, the Lancet study found that the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%, which is more consistent with earlier reports.

《柳葉刀》雜志的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果不考慮未被發(fā)現(xiàn)的感染，冠狀病毒的死亡率為1.38%，這與之前的報告更為一致。

Early in March, for example, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that "if you just do the math, the math is about 2%."

例如，今年3月初，美國國家過敏和傳染病研究所所長安東尼·福奇博士說，“如果你只是計算一下，這個數(shù)字大約是2%。”

But he emphasized that the number could go down, saying that "as a group it's going to depend completely on what the factor of asymptomatic cases are."

但他強調，這個數(shù)字可能會下降，他說，“作為一個群體，它將完全取決于無癥狀病例的因素是什么。”

That's because death rates typically only consider reported coronavirus cases, which tend to be more severe, and thus brought to the attention of health care workers. Asymptomatic cases -- or mild cases -- may not always be counted.

這是因為死亡率通常只考慮報告的冠狀病毒病例，這些病例往往更嚴重，因此引起了衛(wèi)生保健工作者的注意。無癥狀的病例或輕微的病例,可能并不總是被計算在內。

In this study, researchers tried to estimate the true "infection fatality rate." In other words, out of everybody infected -- not just those sick enough to get tested -- how many people will die?

在這項研究中，研究人員試圖估算真正的“感染致死率”。換句話說，所有被感染的人——不僅僅是那些病到需要檢測的人——有多少人會死亡?

Researchers combined that data on "infection prevalence" with public information on reported cases and deaths, estimating the overall death rate to be about two-thirds of 1%.

研究人員將有關“感染流行率”的數(shù)據(jù)與報告病例和死亡的公共信息結合起來，估計總體死亡率約為1%的三分之二。

That number, though, went up in older adults, with approximately 7.8% of those 80 or older estimated to die after infection. And deaths were estimated to be exceedingly rare in children younger than 9. with a fatality rate of just 0.00161%.

不過，這一數(shù)字在老年人中有所上升，估計80歲以上的老年人中約有7.8%死于感染。據(jù)估計，9歲以下兒童的死亡極為罕見，致死率僅為0.00161%。

For age groups younger than 40. the death rate was never higher than 0.16%, according to the study. Out of 1.000 young adults infected, then, about 1 or 2 could die, with the youngest people facing the lowest risk.

研究顯示，對于40歲以下的人群，死亡率從不高于0.16%。每1000個年輕人中就有1到2個可能死亡，而最年輕的人面臨的風險最低。

The study found that it could take weeks for people to recover from coronavirus, which could magnify potential health care shortages: The longer it takes for people to get better, the longer they may need precious hospital space and resources.

研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，人們從冠狀病毒恢復可能需要數(shù)周時間，這可能會加劇潛在的衛(wèi)生保健短缺:人們康復所需的時間越長，他們可能就越需要寶貴的醫(yī)院空間和資源。

The average time from onset of symptoms to hospital discharge was about 25 days, researchers found, although patients might not have been hospitalized during the early days of their illness. Among those who succumbed to the virus, death came about 18 days after people started showing symptoms.

研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，從癥狀出現(xiàn)到出院的平均時間約為25天，盡管患者在發(fā)病初期可能沒有住院。在那些感染病毒的人中，死亡發(fā)生在人們開始出現(xiàn)癥狀18天后。

In an article accompanying the research, Shigui Ruan, a professor of mathematics at the University of Miami, emphasized that estimating the coronavirus death rate "in real time during its epidemic is very challenging."

邁阿密大學數(shù)學教授阮志貴在一篇與這項研究相關的文章中強調，“在冠狀病毒流行期間實時估計其死亡率是非常具有挑戰(zhàn)性的。”

But understanding how many people die from a virus, he said, is an important piece of data that can help guide responses from governments and public health authorities.

但他說，了解有多少人死于病毒是一項重要的數(shù)據(jù)，可以幫助指導政府和公共衛(wèi)生當局的反應。

Ruan, who was not involved with the research, also noted that the coronavirus fatality rate is low for younger people. But he stressed that "it is very clear that any suggestion of COVID-19 being just like influenza is false," with coronavirus remaining far deadlier than the seasonal flu.

阮沒有參與這項研究，他還指出，年輕人的冠狀病毒死亡率較低。但他強調，“很明顯，任何關于COVID-19與流感相似的說法都是錯誤的”，冠狀病毒的致死率遠遠高于季節(jié)性流感。