全球航空業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)到2024年才能恢復(fù)

Global air travel won't recover from the Covid-19 crisis until 2024, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced Tuesday.

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)周二(7月28日)宣布，全球航空業(yè)要到2024年才能從新冠肺炎危機(jī)中恢復(fù)。

That's a year later than the airline body's previous projection.

這比該機(jī)構(gòu)之前的預(yù)測(cè)晚了一年。

The body, which represents 290 airlines, blamed the sluggish recovery on a number of factors, including a lack of consumer confidence, the decline in business travel, and fresh coronavirus spikes in the United States and elsewhere.

該機(jī)構(gòu)將航空業(yè)復(fù)蘇乏力歸咎于一系列因素，包括消費(fèi)者信心不足、商務(wù)旅行減少以及美國(guó)和其他地區(qū)新冠疫情重新抬頭。該機(jī)構(gòu)代表290家航空公司。

The revised baseline forecast is that international passenger traffic will drop 55% in 2020, compared to 2019. Back in April, the IATA had predicted the drop to be just 46%.

修正后的基線預(yù)測(cè)是，2020年國(guó)際客運(yùn)量將比2019年下降55%。今年4月，該機(jī)構(gòu)曾預(yù)測(cè)下降幅度僅為46%。

Passenger numbers are expected to rise 62% next year, but will still be down almost 30% compared to pre-Covid times, with a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels not on the cards until four years from now.

根據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，明年的航空客運(yùn)量將增長(zhǎng)62%，但仍比疫情之前下降約30%，可能需要四年才能全面恢復(fù)到疫情之前的水平。

"Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's director general and CEO in a statement. "What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying."

該機(jī)構(gòu)理事長(zhǎng)兼首席執(zhí)行官亞歷山大·德朱尼亞克在一份聲明中表示：“客運(yùn)量在4月份觸底，但回暖力度一直很弱。我們看到的改善來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)航空。”

Unsurprisingly, short-haul travel is expected to recover faster than long-haul -- due to passenger comfort levels, but also because international markets remain largely closed.

不出所料，短途旅行預(yù)計(jì)將比長(zhǎng)途旅行恢復(fù)得更快——一方面是由于乘客的舒適度，另一方面也是因?yàn)閲?guó)際航線市場(chǎng)仍基本關(guān)閉。

"Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the UK's weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain," said de Juniac.

德朱尼亞克說(shuō)：“英國(guó)上周末決定對(duì)所有從西班牙回來(lái)的旅客實(shí)行全面隔離，消費(fèi)者信心受到打擊。”

 

 

The British government made a surprise U-turn on its UK-Spain travel corridor on Saturday, reinstating with immediate effect its 14-day quarantine for all travelers arriving from the popular tourist destination, following a rise in coronavirus cases in the country.

在西班牙新冠肺炎確診病例數(shù)量上升后，英國(guó)政府上周六對(duì)來(lái)自西班牙旅客的入境政策出現(xiàn)180度大轉(zhuǎn)彎，立即恢復(fù)對(duì)所有從該熱門(mén)旅游目的地抵達(dá)的旅客實(shí)施14天隔離。

Many British holidaymakers -- who'd jetted off shortly after schools broke up for summer -- were caught out by the decision. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab defended the move, telling Sky News that it "took the decision as swiftly as we could, and we can't apologize for doing so."

許多英國(guó)度假者在學(xué)校放暑假后不久就乘飛機(jī)離開(kāi)，他們都被這一決定搞得心煩意亂。英國(guó)外交大臣多米尼克·拉布為這一舉動(dòng)進(jìn)行了辯護(hù)，他對(duì)天空新聞表示，英國(guó)“以最快的速度做出了這個(gè)決定，我們不能為此道歉。”

In terms of countries' domestic traffic, China's airlines are leading the recovery, with traffic down 35.5% in June compared to the 2019 period, up from a 46.3% decline in May.

在各國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)客運(yùn)量方面，中國(guó)航空公司引領(lǐng)復(fù)蘇，6月份客運(yùn)量同比下降35.5%，低于5月份46.3%的降幅。

The IATA says that scientific advances in fighting Covid-19, including the development of a successful vaccine, could allow for a speedier recovery. But for now, the future is looking bleak.

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)表示，在抗擊新冠肺炎方面取得的科學(xué)進(jìn)展，包括疫苗成功研制，可能會(huì)讓航空業(yè)更快復(fù)蘇。但目前來(lái)看前景不樂(lè)觀。

"In many parts of the world infections are still rising," said IATA's de Juniac. "All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy."

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)的德朱尼亞克說(shuō)：“在世界許多地方，感染人數(shù)仍在上升。所有這些都表明，航空業(yè)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將面臨更長(zhǎng)的復(fù)蘇期，也將承受更多痛苦。”

With airlines struggling financially, governments will need to continue relief measures to stop carriers going under, said the airline body.

該機(jī)構(gòu)表示，隨著航空公司陷入財(cái)務(wù)困境，各國(guó)政府將需要繼續(xù)采取救助措施，以防止航空公司破產(chǎn)。

"Summer -- our industry's busiest season -- is passing by rapidly," said de Juniac. He said that there was "little chance for an upswing in international air travel unless governments move quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closures, confidence-destroying stop-start re-openings and demand-killing quarantine."

德朱尼亞克說(shuō)：“夏天，航空業(yè)最繁忙的季節(jié)，正在迅速過(guò)去。除非各國(guó)政府迅速果斷地采取行動(dòng)，尋找邊界關(guān)閉、破壞信心的斷斷續(xù)續(xù)的重新開(kāi)放和扼殺需求的隔離措施之外的替代方案，否則國(guó)際航空旅行復(fù)蘇的機(jī)會(huì)微乎其微。”