若哥本哈根峰會(huì)無(wú)果 中國(guó)損失巨大

如果哥本哈根氣候變化峰會(huì)無(wú)法提出一項(xiàng)綜合性的有關(guān)利用綠色能源的協(xié)議，可能會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)生諸多重大影響，其中包括對(duì)太陽(yáng)能和碳捕獲這兩個(gè)擁有巨大增長(zhǎng)潛力的技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的融資。

China has lots at stake if Copenhagen climate change talks don't come up with a comprehensive green energy package, including financing for two potentially huge growth areas--solar power and carbon capture.

中國(guó)近期宣布了基于碳強(qiáng)度的減排目標(biāo)，雖然并沒有如一些國(guó)家所要求的那樣制定具有約束力的溫室氣體排放上限，但這表明中國(guó)準(zhǔn)備在本周開始的氣候峰會(huì)上扮演關(guān)鍵角色。

Its recent announcement on cutting carbon intensity, while falling short of binding greenhouse gas emissions caps demanded by some countries, shows China is ready to play a central role in the climate summit that started this week.

若哥本哈根峰會(huì)達(dá)成協(xié)議，可能會(huì)給中國(guó)帶來好處：中國(guó)將從發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家獲得更多的資金援助和技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓。作為太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)電設(shè)備的出口大國(guó)，中國(guó)還將獲得更多的產(chǎn)品需求。讓中國(guó)政府最為擔(dān)心的則是終止《京都議定書》有關(guān)在發(fā)展中國(guó)家的減排可以帶來可交易的碳排放額度的條款；中國(guó)一直是相關(guān)機(jī)制的最大受益者，其獲得的碳排放額度占總量的59%。

A deal in Copenhagen could bring the country benefits: more funding and technology transfers from developed nations, and as an exporter of solar-power and wind-power equipment, increased demand for its products. What China dreads most is the end of Kyoto provisions that grant tradable credits for reducing emissions; China has been the top receiver for the credits in terms of registered projects with the United Nations, getting 59% of the total.

《京都議定書》的后續(xù)協(xié)議可能會(huì)在以下幾個(gè)方面給中國(guó)帶來更多的現(xiàn)金：清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制(CDM)所產(chǎn)生的碳排放額度繼續(xù)帶來資金流入，獲得所需的資金建成全球第四大風(fēng)力發(fā)電能力，以及從外國(guó)公司手中奪回國(guó)內(nèi)風(fēng)力發(fā)電市場(chǎng)的控制權(quán)。

A successor to Kyoto could unlock more cash for China, in the form of a renewed inflow of carbon credits generated by the Clean Development Mechanism, money that helped it build the world's fourth largest wind power capacity and also wrest control of the domestic wind power market from foreign companies.

中國(guó)資源綜合利用協(xié)會(huì)可再生能源專業(yè)委員會(huì)的CDM項(xiàng)目主任王衛(wèi)權(quán)說，如果哥本哈根峰會(huì)能使得2012年之后清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制的前景更加明了，取得積極的成果，那么就可能會(huì)提振對(duì)中國(guó)清潔能源項(xiàng)目的投資興趣。

'If the outlook for CDM after 2012 can get clearer during the Copenhagen conference and it turns out to be positive, then investment interest in China's clean energy projects would get a boost,' said Wang Weiquan, CDM project director with the China Renewable Energy Industries Association.

IHS集團(tuán)旗下劍橋能源咨詢公司(IHS CERA)的研究顯示，截至去年年底，中國(guó)公司已經(jīng)在中國(guó)風(fēng)力發(fā)電設(shè)備市場(chǎng)上占據(jù)了67%的份額，而Vestas Wind Systems、Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologia和通用電氣(General Electric)等外國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的總份額已經(jīng)從2004年的75%銳減至20%。

By the end of last year, Chinese companies had grabbed a 67% share of China's wind power equipment market, squeezing Vestas Wind Systems AS, Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologia SA and General Electric Co., whose combined China market share slumped to 20%, from 75% in 2004, according to research by IHS CERA.

林娜是歐盟提供資金支持的歐盟-中國(guó)清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制促進(jìn)項(xiàng)目(EU-China CDM Facilitation Project)的項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理。她認(rèn)為，風(fēng)力發(fā)電和中國(guó)已擁有成熟技術(shù)的水力發(fā)電不太可能在2012年之后獲得碳排放額度。

Lin Na, a manager with the European Commission-funded EU-China CDM Facilitation Project, thinks wind and hydropower, where China has now mature technologies, are unlikely to secure carbon credits in a post-2012 scenario.

但林娜說，碳捕獲及封存（CCS）和太陽(yáng)能等領(lǐng)域可能會(huì)從富裕國(guó)家獲得資金。

But sectors like carbon capture and sequestration and solar power have the potential to receive funding from rich nations, Lin said.

看起來即便不能通過碳排放額度獲得幫助，中國(guó)也有望贏得國(guó)際清潔煤炭技術(shù)合約。

China looks well placed to capture international clean coal technology contracts, even without help from carbon credits.