哥本哈根峰會：各國都在想什么

本周，來自192個國家的官員將齊聚哥本哈根，探討如何應(yīng)對全球氣候變化問題，他們將尋求達(dá)成一項新的協(xié)議，以接替1997年簽署的《京都議定書》（Kyoto Protocol）。即便各國在此次會議上無法達(dá)成一項具約束力的協(xié)議，許多國家也希望至少能夠約定減少各國溫室氣體排放量，并向最有可能受到全球變暖影響沖擊的發(fā)展中國家提供幫助。

This week, officials from 192 countries will meet in Copenhagen to tackle global climate change, seeking a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Even if they can't negotiate a binding agreement, many countries hope at least to work out commitments to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions and provide assistance to poorer countries likely to be hardest hit by the effects of global warming.

當(dāng)然，每個國家都有自己特殊的當(dāng)務(wù)之急和種種顧慮。我們不妨看看幾個國家針對此次哥本哈根之行的一些議事日程。

Each country, of course, has its own particular priorites and concerns, which is why an agreement is so difficult to reach. Here's a look at some of their agendas for Copenhagen.

美國U.S.

美國未能通過氣候變化法案意味著哥本哈根峰會達(dá)成協(xié)議將被延后。不過，仍在國會有待批準(zhǔn)的議案以及奧巴馬政府監(jiān)管溫室氣體排放量的權(quán)力讓美國政府樹立起可信度，并增加了其談判的砝碼，為最終促成協(xié)議定下基礎(chǔ)。美國政府可能仍會承諾到2020年美國二氧化碳排放總量下降17%，同時為發(fā)展中國家的低碳項目提供資金援助，以使各國達(dá)成協(xié)議。美國還希望其它國家，主要是中國和印度承諾其溫室氣體排放量何時達(dá)到頂峰，并要求兩國政府制定嚴(yán)格的有關(guān)報告、監(jiān)控和核查溫室氣體排放量和減排量的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

The U.S.'s failure to pass climate-change legislation has meant a delay in a deal at Copenhagen. But pending bills in Congress and the Obama administration's authority to regulate emissions give the country credibility -- and negotiating leverage toward an eventual agreement. The U.S. may still pledge to cut emissions about 17% by 2020, while offering funding of low-carbon initiatives for poorer countries to draw them to an agreement. The U.S. also wants other countries, mainly China and India, to commit on when their greenhouse-gas emissions will peak, and will demand stringent standards for reporting, monitoring and verification of emissions and reductions.

中國China

中國已經(jīng)承諾，到2020年中國單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%。這意味著中國將進(jìn)行自愿減排，因此，不太可能寫進(jìn)一份有法律約束力的氣候變化協(xié)議。但是，這也體現(xiàn)了中國對哥本哈根峰會達(dá)成協(xié)議抱有興趣，這可能會給中國帶來各種好處；中國將從發(fā)達(dá)國家獲得更多的資金援助和技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓。作為太陽能和風(fēng)電設(shè)備的出口大國，中國還將獲得更多的產(chǎn)品需求。讓中國政府最為擔(dān)心的則是結(jié)束《京都議定書》有關(guān)在發(fā)展中國家的減排可以帶來可交易的碳排放額度的條款；中國一直是相關(guān)機(jī)制的最大受益者，其獲得的碳排放額度占總量的59%。

China has pledged to curb carbon emissions as a percentage of gross domestic product by 40% to 45% by 2020. These would be voluntary cuts and therefore unlikely to be part of a binding climate-change pact. But it signals China's interest in an agreement at Copenhagen. Such a deal could bring the country benefits: more funding and technology transfers from developed nations, and as an exporter of solar-power and wind-power equipment, increased demand for its products. What China dreads most is the end of Kyoto provisions that grant tradable credits for reducing emissions; China has been the top receiver for the credits, getting 59% of the total.

印度India

印度政府長期以來都在抵制實施碳排放上限。印度說準(zhǔn)備在2020年將排放強(qiáng)度削減20%-25%，但不會接受有法律約束力的減排指標(biāo)。印度辯解稱，印度在考慮固定的排放峰值之前，需要發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，而發(fā)達(dá)國家肩負(fù)采取更多限制性措施的歷史責(zé)任，因為它們才是導(dǎo)致幾十年來氣候遭到損害的罪魁禍?zhǔn)住Ｓ《日仓С掷觅Y金援助和技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓刺激綠色能源解決方案。近來，印度領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人已經(jīng)顯示出變通的跡象，自印度去年粉碎世界貿(mào)易談判之后，他們急于證明自己不會成為哥本哈根峰會的破壞者。

India, which has long resisted the imposition of carbon-emission caps, says it is ready to cut emissions intensity 20% to 25% by 2020, but won't accept legally binding targets. It argues that it needs development and economic growth before it should consider fixed emission caps and that the developed world has a historic responsibility to take more restrictive measures because it caused decades of atmospheric damage. India also favors financing and technology transfer to boost green energy solutions.

俄羅斯Russia

氣候變化問題并非俄羅斯政府議事日程的重點；其注意力集中在旨在推動前蘇聯(lián)時期工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施節(jié)能化所需的大量投資上。俄羅斯政府的目標(biāo)是到2020年將能源效率提高40%。有關(guān)外交官稱，俄羅斯愿意將碳排放從1990年的水平減少20%到25%。俄羅斯總理普京（Vladimir Putin）則表示，俄羅斯愿意簽署后《京都議定書》協(xié)議，前提其它國家也要簽署此項協(xié)議，而且俄羅斯森林對于減少全球二氧化碳排放量的貢獻(xiàn)亦被考慮其中。

Climate change isn't high on Russia's agenda; its attention is on the massive investments it needs to make its aging Soviet-era industrial infrastructure more energy-efficient -- with a goal of a 40% improvement in energy efficiency by 2020. Diplomats say the country is willing to reduce emissions between 20% and 25% from 1990 levels. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says Russia will join a post-Kyoto agreement only if other countries sign up for it and if Russian forests' contribution to reducing global carbon dioxide is taken into account.