財富精英勵志演講 第34期:巴菲特:決定你成功的因素(4)

[00:00.01]Well, that’s a short little sermon. 上面我簡單地我說了一下我的看法。 [00:01.84]So Let's get on with what you’re interested in. 下面就讓我們開始談談你們所感興趣的。 [00:05.16]And like I say, in go all over. 就像我之前說的那樣。 [00:08.20]So, I don’t know exactly how we gotta have this, but let's start with a hand here someplace or other. 我不知道接下來怎樣進行，那我們從舉手示意的同學開始提問題吧。 [00:15.44]There we go, for the first one...yeah, right here. 第一個問題，那個同學。 [00:18.82]Q： Your thoughts about Japan? 問題：您對日本的看法? [00:20.54]W: My thoughts about Japan? I am not a macro guy. 巴菲特：我對日本的看法?我不是一個太宏觀的人。 [00:24.44]Now I said to myself Berkshire Hathaway can borrow money for 10 years at one percent. 我所在的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司在日本10年期的貸款利息只有1%。 [00:31.19]I say gee, I took Graham’s class 45 years ago and I have been working hard at this thing all my life. 我對自己說，45年前，我上了本杰明.格拉姆的課程，然后我就一直勤勤懇懇，努力工作， [00:37.48]Maybe I can earn more than 1% annually. I really work hard at it. 也許我應該比1%掙的多點吧? [00:41.08]One percent. It doesn’t seem impossible, doesn’t it? 看上去那不是不可能的。 [00:43.55]So I wouldn’t want to get involved in currency risk, so it would have to be Yen-denominated. 我不想卷入任何匯率波動的風險，所以我會選擇以日元為基準的資產(chǎn)。 [00:49.04]I would have to be in Japanese Real Estate or Japanese companies or something of the sort and all I have to do is to beat 1%. 如地產(chǎn)或企業(yè)，必須是日本國內(nèi)的。我唯一需要做的就是掙得比1%多， [00:53.52]That is all the money is going to cost me and I can get it for 10 years. 因為那是我資金的成本，十年內(nèi)我要收回來的。 [00:58.15]So far I haven’t found anything. It is kind of interesting. 可直到現(xiàn)在，我還沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)一家可以投資的生意。這真的很有趣。 [01:05.90]The Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity, 日本企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)回報率都很低。 [01:08.53]and they have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, 6% on equity 他們有少數(shù)企業(yè)會有4%，5%，或6%的回報。 [01:13.40]and it is very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you are in doesn’t earn very much money. 如果日本企業(yè)本身賺不了多少錢的話，那么其資產(chǎn)投資者是很難獲得好的回報的。 [01:18.99]Now some people do it in fact. 當然，有一些人也賺了錢。 [01:21.12]I've got a friend, Walter Schloss, who worked at Graham at the same time I did. 我有一個和我同期為本杰明.格拉姆工作過的朋友，他叫沃爾特·施洛斯。 [01:25.90]And it was the first way I went to stocks to buy stocks selling way below working capital. A very cheap, quantitative stocks. 那是我第一次運用買股票的方法，即尋找那些股票價格遠低于流動資本的公司，非常便宜但股票數(shù)量有限的公司。 [01:32.45]I call it the “cigar butt” approach to investing. 我管那方法叫雪茄煙蒂投資法。 [01:36.17]You walk down the street, you look around for a cigar butt someplace. 你滿地找雪茄煙蒂， [01:38.80]And you finally see one and it is soggy and kind of repulsive, but there is one puff left in it . 終于你找到一個濕透了的，令人討厭的煙蒂，看上去還能抽上一口。 [01:44.30]So you pick it up and the puff is free. 那一口可是免費的。 [01:46.80]I mean it is a cigar butt stock. I mean you get one free puff on it and then you throw it away and walk down the street and try another one. 你把它撿起來，抽上最后一口，然后扔了，接著找下一個。 [01:52.14]I mean it is not elegant, but it works. 這聽上去一點都不優(yōu)雅，但是很有效。 [01:56.72]If you are looking for a free puff,it works. 如果你找的是一口免費的雪茄煙，這方法還值得做。 [01:59.43]Those are low return businesses. 不要做低回報率的生意。

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