財富精英勵志演講 第38期:巴菲特:決定你成功的因素(8)

[00:00.01]And yet 16 guys with very high IQs and very decent people entered into that game. 我所不能理解的是，這16 個如此高智商的能人怎么就會玩這樣一個游戲。 [00:06.13]You know I think it is madness. 簡直就是瘋了。 [00:09.07]It is produced by an overall reliance to same extent on things. 某種程度上，他們的決定基本上都依賴于一個客觀上的聯(lián)系。 [00:14.21]You know those guys would tell me back at Salomon, a six Sigma event wouldn’t touch us,or a seven Sigma event. 他們在所羅門兄弟公司時和我說過，一個六或七西格瑪?shù)氖录莻涣怂麄兊摹? [00:22.35]But they were wrong. I mean that history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial things happening. 但是他們錯了，歷史是不會告訴你將來某一金融事件發(fā)生的概率的。 [00:31.24]And they had a great reliance on mathematics. And they thought that the data of the stock told you something about the risk of the stock. 他們很大程度上也依賴于數(shù)學統(tǒng)計，他們認為關于股票的數(shù)據(jù)掲示了股票的風險。 [00:39.42]It doesn’t tell you a damn thing about the risk of the stock in my view. 我認為那些數(shù)據(jù)根本就不會告訴你股票的風險! [00:41.48]And Sigmas do not tell you about the risk of going broke in my view and maybe now in their view too. 我認為數(shù)據(jù)也不會掲示你破產的風險。也許他們現(xiàn)在也這么想了。 [00:50.10]But you know I don’t like even use them as an example, because they are, I mean the same thing in a different way could happen to any of us probably, 亊實上，我根本不想用他們來作例子，因為他們的經歷換一種形式，很可能發(fā)生在我們中的任何一個人身上。 [00:58.08]where we really have a blind spot about something that is crucial, because we know a whole lot of something else. 即使我們懂得再多的知識，只要在關鍵處有盲點，就很可能會功虧一簣。 [01:06.00]It is like Henry Kauffman said the other day:people who are going broke in this situation are of two types, the ones who know nothing and the ones who know everything. 正像亨利·考夫曼所說的，破產的多是兩類人：一是一竅不通者;一是學富五車者。 [01:15.52]It is sad in a way. 這其實是令人悲哀的。 [01:18.09]I urge you, at anything, we never basically borrow money. 我建議你們，不管在什么情況下，都不要借錢。 [01:21.59]I mean we get insurance business in duty, but I never borrowed money,I never borrow money even when I had 10,000 bucks basically, what difference did it make? 我們是從來不借錢的，即使有保險做擔保。即使是在我只有1萬美元的時候，我也決不借錢。借錢能帶來什么不同嗎? [01:29.47]I was having fun as I went along and it didn’t matter whether I had 10,000 dollars or a million dollars or ten million dollars, 只憑我一己之力時我也樂趣無窮。一萬美元，一百萬美元和 一千萬美元對我都沒有什么不同。 [01:36.10]you know like if I had a medical emergency or something that come along like that. 當然，當我遇到類似緊急醫(yī)療亊件的情況下會有些例外。 [01:40.54]But I was going to do the same things when I had a lot of money as when I had a very little money. 不過，在錢多錢少的情況下，我都會做同樣的亊情。 [01:46.02]If you think about the difference between me and you, in terms of how we live, 如果你從生活方式的角度來想想你們和我的不同， [01:52.35]you know, we wear the same clothes basically, SunTrust gives me mine, but you...so we wear the same clothes, we eat, you know, we all have chance to drink the juice of God here. 我們穿的是同樣的衣服，當然我的是 SunTrust給的;就吃的來說， 我們都有機會喝上帝之泉， [02:05.19]We all go to McDonald’s or better yet, Dairy Queen, and we live in a house that is warm in winter and cool in summer. 我們都去麥當勞，或者去好一點的地方，去奶酪皇后店;我們都住在冬暖夏涼的房子里。 [02:14.46]And we watch the Nebraska and Texas A & M game on big screen (TV). 我們都在平板大電視上看內布拉斯加大學和德克薩斯農工大學的橄欖球比賽。 [02:20.03]You see it the same way as I see it We do everything (the same). Our lives are not that different. 我們做同樣的亊情。我們的生活沒什么不同。 [02:26.27]You’ll be given some medical care when something happened to you while I'll be given some medical care. 有病時，你能得到不錯的醫(yī)療，我也一樣。 [02:29.49]The only thing we do is we travel differently, you know, I ride on a little plane, I love it. And that takes money. 唯一的不同可能是我們旅行的方式不同， 我有我的私人飛機來周游世界，我很軎歡，這可能要花點錢。 [02:37.16]But if you leave that aside, if you leave that we travel differently, but other than travel, you know, think about it, think. What can I do that you can't do? 但是除了這個之外，你們再想想，我能做的你們有什么不能做呢?

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