Lex專欄：中國(guó)券商有望受益于IPO熱潮

The proposed $100bn float of Xiaomi should excite Lei Jun, founder of the Beijing-based smartphone maker. Investors in Citic Securities may benefit, too. Press reports moot its subsidiary CLSA as a sponsor to the initial public offering. Citic shares have risen 10 per cent in the two days since. An expected IPO boom bodes well for brokerage companies more broadly.

小米(Xiaomi)擬議中的1000億美元上市計(jì)劃，應(yīng)該會(huì)讓這家總部位于北京的智能手機(jī)制造商的創(chuàng)始人雷軍感到興奮。中信證券(Citic Securities)的投資者也可能從中受益。媒體報(bào)道稱，其子公司中信里昂證券(CLSA)將成為此次首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)的保薦人之一。自那以來(lái)的兩天內(nèi)，中信股價(jià)已上漲10%。預(yù)期中的IPO熱潮對(duì)券商作為一個(gè)整體是個(gè)好兆頭。

Analysts at Nomura expect IPO volumes to increase 10 per cent to Rmb265bn ($41bn). Citic and Guangfa Securities have the largest IPO pipelines with at least twice the number of deals of third-ranked group Orient Securities, as of November.

野村證券(Nomura)分析師預(yù)計(jì)IPO規(guī)模將增長(zhǎng)10%，至2650億元人民幣(合410億美元)。截至去年11月，中信證券和廣發(fā)證券(Guangfa Securities)擁有規(guī)模最大的IPO管道，交易數(shù)量至少是排名第三的東方證券(Orient Securities)的兩倍。

Regulatory tightening is putting the squeeze on secondary refinancings. But the impact is softened by the fact that fees on these deals are less than a fifth of commissions on IPOs in percentage terms. Even cutting the secondaries business by half would at most reduce sector revenues by 3 per cent.

監(jiān)管收緊正在對(duì)二次再融資造成擠壓。但其影響已被減緩——因?yàn)榘窗俜直扔?jì)算，這些交易的費(fèi)用不到IPO傭金的五分之一。即使將二級(jí)業(yè)務(wù)削減一半，最多也會(huì)使整個(gè)行業(yè)的收入減少3%。

Brokerage and investment income together account for more than half of brokers’ revenues. Positive stock market sentiment provides a tailwind to both activities. Trading volumes have declined two years in a row since the 2015 bust and are due a bounce back. Recent regulation restricts investors to a maximum of three broker accounts, down from 20. This should help slow a decline in commission rates.

經(jīng)紀(jì)和投資收入合計(jì)占到券商收入的一半以上。樂(lè)觀的股市情緒為這兩項(xiàng)活動(dòng)提供了推動(dòng)力。自2015年崩盤以來(lái)，交易量已連續(xù)兩年下降，是時(shí)候迎來(lái)反彈。最近的監(jiān)管規(guī)定限制投資者最多開立3個(gè)券商賬戶，以前是20個(gè)。這將有助于減緩傭金費(fèi)率的下滑。

Citic occupies a sweet spot in investment because its relatively low exposure to bonds makes it less vulnerable to rising rates than rivals. Leverage, measured by the ratio of liabilities to equity, is lower than historical averages and that of foreign groups. Bulls will demand more margin financing, which could boost the balance sheet size along with the group’s return on equity.

中信在投資方面占據(jù)了有利地位，相對(duì)較低的債券敞口意味著，相對(duì)于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，它更不容易受到利率上升的影響。杠桿率(以負(fù)債與股本之比衡量)低于歷史平均水平和外資集團(tuán)。看漲市場(chǎng)的人將需求更多的保證金融資，這可能會(huì)提振資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模，并提高該集團(tuán)的股本回報(bào)率。

Despite their recent increase, shares of Citic Securities trade at a multiple of 1.3 times book — still a discount to their long run average. Chinese investment banks that own brokerages are a cheap way for investors to benefit from the country’s bull market.

盡管最近股價(jià)有所上漲，但中信證券的股價(jià)仍是賬面價(jià)值的1.3倍，低于長(zhǎng)期平均水平。擁有券商業(yè)務(wù)的中國(guó)投行是投資者獲益于中國(guó)牛市的低成本渠道。